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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Twente win with a probability of 68.73%. A draw had a probability of 17.3% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 13.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Twente win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.28%) and 3-1 (7.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.75%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 1-2 (3.97%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Twente would win this match.
Result | ||
FC Twente | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
68.73% ( 0.17) | 17.31% ( -0.06) | 13.96% ( -0.12) |
Both teams to score 58.63% ( -0.11) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
67.56% ( 0.02) | 32.44% ( -0.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
45.93% ( 0.02) | 54.07% ( -0.02) |
FC Twente Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
91.42% ( 0.04) | 8.58% ( -0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
70.35% ( 0.11) | 29.65% ( -0.11) |
SBV Excelsior Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
64.14% ( -0.15) | 35.86% ( 0.15) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
27.36% ( -0.15) | 72.64% ( 0.15) |
Score Analysis |
FC Twente | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
2-1 @ 9.52% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 9.28% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 7.79% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 7.59% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 7.56% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 4.78% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 4.66% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 3.99% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 2.45% ( -0) 5-1 @ 2.35% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 2.29% ( 0.02) 5-2 @ 1.2% ( 0) 6-1 @ 0.96% ( 0.01) 6-0 @ 0.94% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.37% Total : 68.73% | 1-1 @ 7.75% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 4.88% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 3.08% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.37% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.24% Total : 17.31% | 1-2 @ 3.97% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 3.16% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.67% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 1.62% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 1.36% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.19% Total : 13.96% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | PSV EindhovenPSV | 33 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 108 | 20 | 88 | 88 |
2 | Feyenoord | 33 | 25 | 6 | 2 | 88 | 26 | 62 | 81 |
3 | FC Twente | 33 | 20 | 6 | 7 | 67 | 35 | 32 | 66 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 33 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 67 | 36 | 31 | 64 |
5 | Ajax | 33 | 15 | 10 | 8 | 72 | 59 | 13 | 55 |
6 | NECNijmegen | 33 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 64 | 50 | 14 | 50 |
7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 33 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 46 | 44 | 2 | 49 |
8 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 49 | 47 | 2 | 46 |
9 | Go Ahead Eagles | 33 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 45 | 45 | 0 | 43 |
10 | Heerenveen | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 52 | 68 | -16 | 37 |
11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 37 | 56 | -19 | 37 |
12 | PEC Zwolle | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 44 | 65 | -21 | 36 |
13 | Almere CityAlmere City | 33 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 32 | 55 | -23 | 34 |
14 | Heracles | 33 | 9 | 5 | 19 | 41 | 74 | -33 | 32 |
15 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 37 | 53 | -16 | 29 |
16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 33 | 6 | 11 | 16 | 50 | 69 | -19 | 29 |
R | FC VolendamVolendam | 33 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 33 | 86 | -53 | 19 |
R | Vitesse | 33 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 28 | 72 | -44 | 5 |
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