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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Utrecht win with a probability of 75.64%. A draw had a probability of 14.2% and a win for Vitesse had a probability of 10.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Utrecht win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.74%) and 3-0 (8.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.23%), while for a Vitesse win it was 1-2 (2.99%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Utrecht would win this match.
Result | ||
FC Utrecht | Draw | Vitesse |
75.64% ( 0.21) | 14.23% ( 0.06) | 10.13% ( -0.26) |
Both teams to score 58.03% ( -1.44) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
72.61% ( -1.2) | 27.39% ( 1.2) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
52.02% ( -1.52) | 47.98% ( 1.52) |
FC Utrecht Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
93.97% ( -0.22) | 6.03% ( 0.22) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
77.03% ( -0.63) | 22.97% ( 0.63) |
Vitesse Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
61.76% ( -1.38) | 38.24% ( 1.39) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
25% ( -1.36) | 75% ( 1.36) |
Score Analysis |
FC Utrecht | Draw | Vitesse |
2-0 @ 9.1% ( 0.43) 2-1 @ 8.74% ( 0.09) 3-0 @ 8.51% ( 0.29) 3-1 @ 8.18% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 6.48% ( 0.38) 4-0 @ 5.98% ( 0.13) 4-1 @ 5.74% ( -0.1) 3-2 @ 3.93% ( -0.16) 5-0 @ 3.36% ( 0.03) 5-1 @ 3.23% ( -0.1) 4-2 @ 2.76% ( -0.15) 6-0 @ 1.57% ( -0.01) 5-2 @ 1.55% ( -0.11) 6-1 @ 1.51% ( -0.07) Other @ 5% Total : 75.64% | 1-1 @ 6.23% ( 0.15) 2-2 @ 4.2% ( -0.12) 0-0 @ 2.31% ( 0.17) 3-3 @ 1.26% ( -0.1) Other @ 0.24% Total : 14.23% | 1-2 @ 2.99% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 2.22% ( 0.08) 2-3 @ 1.35% ( -0.09) 0-2 @ 1.07% ( -0) 1-3 @ 0.96% ( -0.05) Other @ 1.55% Total : 10.13% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | PSV EindhovenPSV | 32 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 107 | 19 | 88 | 87 |
2 | Feyenoord | 32 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 85 | 24 | 61 | 78 |
3 | FC Twente | 32 | 19 | 6 | 7 | 60 | 33 | 27 | 63 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 32 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 64 | 36 | 28 | 61 |
5 | Ajax | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 69 | 59 | 10 | 52 |
6 | NECNijmegen | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 62 | 47 | 15 | 50 |
7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 32 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 46 | 43 | 3 | 49 |
8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 32 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 45 | 42 | 3 | 43 |
9 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 48 | 47 | 1 | 43 |
10 | Heerenveen | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 51 | 65 | -14 | 37 |
11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 32 | 9 | 9 | 14 | 36 | 55 | -19 | 36 |
12 | PEC Zwolle | 32 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 43 | 64 | -21 | 35 |
13 | Almere CityAlmere City | 32 | 7 | 13 | 12 | 32 | 52 | -20 | 34 |
14 | Heracles | 32 | 9 | 5 | 18 | 41 | 70 | -29 | 32 |
15 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 32 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 36 | 52 | -16 | 28 |
16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 46 | 69 | -23 | 26 |
R | FC VolendamVolendam | 32 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 31 | 79 | -48 | 19 |
R | Vitesse | 32 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 25 | 71 | -46 | 2 |
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