Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 39.67%. A win for Benfica had a probability of 36.01% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.72%) and 0-2 (5.93%). The likeliest Benfica win was 2-1 (8.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.22%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood.
Result | ||
Benfica | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
36.01% ( -1.15) | 24.31% ( 0.14) | 39.67% ( 1.01) |
Both teams to score 60.17% ( -0.63) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.5% ( -0.78) | 42.5% ( 0.78) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
35.09% ( -0.78) | 64.91% ( 0.78) |
Benfica Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
76.64% ( -0.96) | 23.36% ( 0.96) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
42.67% ( -1.41) | 57.32% ( 1.41) |
Sporting Lisbon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.51% ( 0.15) | 21.49% ( -0.15) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
45.46% ( 0.23) | 54.54% ( -0.23) |
Score Analysis |
Benfica | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
2-1 @ 8.16% ( -0.14) 1-0 @ 7.3% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 5.31% ( -0.12) 3-1 @ 3.96% ( -0.18) 3-2 @ 3.04% ( -0.13) 3-0 @ 2.57% ( -0.13) 4-1 @ 1.44% ( -0.11) 4-2 @ 1.11% ( -0.08) 4-0 @ 0.94% ( -0.08) Other @ 2.19% Total : 36.01% | 1-1 @ 11.22% ( 0.12) 2-2 @ 6.27% ( -0.08) 0-0 @ 5.02% ( 0.17) 3-3 @ 1.56% ( -0.06) Other @ 0.24% Total : 24.31% | 1-2 @ 8.63% ( 0.13) 0-1 @ 7.72% ( 0.3) 0-2 @ 5.93% ( 0.26) 1-3 @ 4.42% ( 0.09) 2-3 @ 3.22% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 3.04% ( 0.14) 1-4 @ 1.7% ( 0.04) 2-4 @ 1.24% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 1.17% ( 0.06) Other @ 2.61% Total : 39.67% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 93 | 29 | 64 | 87 |
2 | Benfica | 33 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 76 | 27 | 49 | 79 |
3 | Porto | 33 | 21 | 6 | 6 | 62 | 27 | 35 | 69 |
4 | Braga | 33 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 71 | 49 | 22 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 33 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 49 | 37 | 12 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 33 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 34 | 34 | 0 | 52 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 53 | 47 | 6 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 42 |
9 | SC FarenseFarense | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 37 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 36 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 36 |
12 | Casa Pia | 33 | 9 | 8 | 16 | 36 | 49 | -13 | 35 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 33 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 37 | 60 | -23 | 31 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 30 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 71 | -35 | 29 |
R | Vizela | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 25 |
R | ChavesChaves | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 23 |
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