Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 70.4%. A draw had a probability of 18.3% and a win for Casa Pia had a probability of 11.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.83%) and 2-1 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.71%), while for a Casa Pia win it was 0-1 (4.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood.
Result | ||
Benfica | Draw | Casa Pia |
70.4% ( 0.23) | 18.33% ( -0.14) | 11.27% ( -0.09) |
Both teams to score 46.19% ( 0.17) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.66% ( 0.39) | 44.33% ( -0.39) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.29% ( 0.38) | 66.71% ( -0.38) |
Benfica Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
88.64% ( 0.17) | 11.36% ( -0.17) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
63.93% ( 0.37) | 36.07% ( -0.37) |
Casa Pia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
52.11% ( 0.09) | 47.89% ( -0.09) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
16.85% ( 0.07) | 83.15% ( -0.06) |
Score Analysis |
Benfica | Draw | Casa Pia |
2-0 @ 12.86% ( -0.04) 1-0 @ 11.83% ( -0.12) 2-1 @ 9.48% ( -0) 3-0 @ 9.33% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 6.87% ( 0.04) 4-0 @ 5.07% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 3.74% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 2.53% ( 0.02) 5-0 @ 2.21% ( 0.04) 5-1 @ 1.63% ( 0.03) 4-2 @ 1.38% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.48% Total : 70.39% | 1-1 @ 8.71% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 5.44% ( -0.09) 2-2 @ 3.49% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.69% Total : 18.33% | 0-1 @ 4.01% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 3.21% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 1.48% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.58% Total : 11.27% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 93 | 29 | 64 | 87 |
2 | Benfica | 33 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 76 | 27 | 49 | 79 |
3 | Porto | 33 | 21 | 6 | 6 | 62 | 27 | 35 | 69 |
4 | Braga | 33 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 71 | 49 | 22 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 33 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 49 | 37 | 12 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 33 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 34 | 34 | 0 | 52 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 53 | 47 | 6 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 42 |
9 | SC FarenseFarense | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 37 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 36 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 36 |
12 | Casa Pia | 33 | 9 | 8 | 16 | 36 | 49 | -13 | 35 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 33 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 37 | 60 | -23 | 31 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 30 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 71 | -35 | 29 |
R | Vizela | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 25 |
R | ChavesChaves | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 23 |
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