Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 59.64%. A draw had a probability of 21.7% and a win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 18.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.05%) and 1-2 (9.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.23%), while for a Gil Vicente win it was 1-0 (5.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
Result | ||
Gil Vicente | Draw | Benfica |
18.71% ( -0.07) | 21.66% ( -0.01) | 59.64% ( 0.08) |
Both teams to score 53.86% ( -0.1) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
56.21% ( -0.07) | 43.79% ( 0.07) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.82% ( -0.07) | 66.18% ( 0.07) |
Gil Vicente Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
62.84% ( -0.11) | 37.16% ( 0.12) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
26.06% ( -0.11) | 73.95% ( 0.11) |
Benfica Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85.71% ( 0) | 14.3% ( -0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
57.89% ( 0) | 42.11% ( -0) |
Score Analysis |
Gil Vicente | Draw | Benfica |
1-0 @ 5.26% 2-1 @ 5.06% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 2.6% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 1.67% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 1.63% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.49% Total : 18.71% | 1-1 @ 10.23% 0-0 @ 5.31% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 4.92% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 1.05% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.14% Total : 21.66% | 0-1 @ 10.33% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 10.05% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 9.95% ( -0) 0-3 @ 6.52% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 6.45% 2-3 @ 3.19% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 3.17% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 3.14% 2-4 @ 1.55% ( -0) 0-5 @ 1.23% ( 0) 1-5 @ 1.22% Other @ 2.83% Total : 59.63% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 93 | 29 | 64 | 87 |
2 | Benfica | 33 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 76 | 27 | 49 | 79 |
3 | Porto | 33 | 21 | 6 | 6 | 62 | 27 | 35 | 69 |
4 | Braga | 33 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 71 | 49 | 22 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 33 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 49 | 37 | 12 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 33 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 34 | 34 | 0 | 52 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 53 | 47 | 6 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 42 |
9 | SC FarenseFarense | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 37 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 36 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 36 |
12 | Casa Pia | 33 | 9 | 8 | 16 | 36 | 49 | -13 | 35 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 33 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 37 | 60 | -23 | 31 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 30 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 71 | -35 | 29 |
R | Vizela | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 25 |
R | ChavesChaves | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 23 |
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