We certainly expect a tight encounter at the Estadio da Luz on Friday, with little to split the two teams who both boast plenty of quality all over the pitch.
Although the visitors are a point better off at this stage, they are yet to put a statement victory on the board, while their hosts head in with more momentum on the back of five consecutive league wins, and we fancy As Aguias to go top on home turf.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 41.58%. A win for Porto had a probability of 34.12% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.99%) and 2-0 (6.29%). The likeliest Porto win was 1-2 (7.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.23%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
0.39) 
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