Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 58.82%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for DC United had a probability of 18.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.68%) and 2-1 (9.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.74%), while for a DC United win it was 0-1 (5.86%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.
Result | ||
New York City FC | Draw | DC United |
58.82% ( 0.04) | 22.59% ( 0) | 18.58% ( -0.04) |
Both teams to score 50.61% ( -0.07) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
52% ( -0.06) | 48% ( 0.06) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.83% ( -0.05) | 70.17% ( 0.06) |
New York City FC Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.02% ( -0.01) | 15.98% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
54.72% ( -0.02) | 45.28% ( 0.02) |
DC United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
60.24% ( -0.08) | 39.76% ( 0.08) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
23.57% ( -0.07) | 76.43% ( 0.07) |
Score Analysis |
New York City FC | Draw | DC United |
1-0 @ 11.65% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 10.68% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 9.85% ( -0) 3-0 @ 6.53% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 6.02% ( -0) 4-0 @ 2.99% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.78% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.76% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.27% ( -0) 5-0 @ 1.1% ( 0) 5-1 @ 1.01% ( -0) Other @ 2.17% Total : 58.82% | 1-1 @ 10.74% 0-0 @ 6.35% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 4.54% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.95% Total : 22.59% | 0-1 @ 5.86% ( 0) 1-2 @ 4.96% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 2.7% ( -0) 1-3 @ 1.52% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.4% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.14% Total : 18.58% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 32 | 18 | 14 | 24 |
2 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 21 |
3 | Toronto | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 19 |
4 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 17 |
5 | Columbus Crew | 10 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 15 |
6 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 16 | 3 | 14 |
7 | New York City FCNY City | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 14 |
8 | DC United | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 14 |
9 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 14 |
10 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 12 |
11 | CF MontrealMontreal | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 12 |
12 | Nashville SCNashville | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 11 |
13 | Chicago Fire | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 10 |
14 | Orlando City | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 9 |
15 | New England RevolutionNew England | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 7 |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 21 |
2 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 20 |
3 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 10 | 8 | 18 |
4 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 18 |
5 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 18 |
6 | Austin FCAustin | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 13 | 1 | 16 |
7 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 15 |
8 | Houston DynamoHouston | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 14 |
9 | St Louis City | 10 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 13 |
10 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 11 |
11 | Portland TimbersPortland | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 10 |
12 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 9 |
13 | Dallas | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 8 |
14 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 7 |