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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 46.97%. A win for Vitesse had a probability of 28.63% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.37%) and 0-2 (7.66%). The likeliest Vitesse win was 2-1 (7.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.
Result | ||
Vitesse | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
28.63% ( -0.02) | 24.39% ( 0.22) | 46.97% ( -0.21) |
Both teams to score 56.84% ( -0.78) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
54.45% ( -1.02) | 45.54% ( 1.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
32.13% ( -0.98) | 67.87% ( 0.98) |
Vitesse Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.6% ( -0.53) | 29.4% ( 0.53) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.61% ( -0.66) | 65.39% ( 0.66) |
PSV Eindhoven Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.51% ( -0.49) | 19.49% ( 0.49) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
48.63% ( -0.81) | 51.37% ( 0.81) |
Score Analysis |
Vitesse | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
2-1 @ 7.02% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 7.02% ( 0.2) 2-0 @ 4.29% ( 0.06) 3-1 @ 2.87% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 2.34% ( -0.08) 3-0 @ 1.75% ( -0) Other @ 3.34% Total : 28.63% | 1-1 @ 11.47% ( 0.16) 2-2 @ 5.74% ( -0.1) 0-0 @ 5.73% ( 0.25) 3-3 @ 1.28% ( -0.06) Other @ 0.17% Total : 24.39% | 1-2 @ 9.38% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 9.37% ( 0.26) 0-2 @ 7.66% ( 0.1) 1-3 @ 5.11% ( -0.09) 0-3 @ 4.18% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 3.13% ( -0.1) 1-4 @ 2.09% ( -0.07) 0-4 @ 1.71% ( -0.03) 2-4 @ 1.28% ( -0.06) Other @ 3.07% Total : 46.98% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | PSV EindhovenPSV | 33 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 108 | 20 | 88 | 88 |
2 | Feyenoord | 33 | 25 | 6 | 2 | 88 | 26 | 62 | 81 |
3 | FC Twente | 33 | 20 | 6 | 7 | 67 | 35 | 32 | 66 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 33 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 67 | 36 | 31 | 64 |
5 | Ajax | 33 | 15 | 10 | 8 | 72 | 59 | 13 | 55 |
6 | NECNijmegen | 33 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 64 | 50 | 14 | 50 |
7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 33 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 46 | 44 | 2 | 49 |
8 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 49 | 47 | 2 | 46 |
9 | Go Ahead Eagles | 33 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 45 | 45 | 0 | 43 |
10 | Heerenveen | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 52 | 68 | -16 | 37 |
11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 37 | 56 | -19 | 37 |
12 | PEC Zwolle | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 44 | 65 | -21 | 36 |
13 | Almere CityAlmere City | 33 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 32 | 55 | -23 | 34 |
14 | Heracles | 33 | 9 | 5 | 19 | 41 | 74 | -33 | 32 |
15 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 37 | 53 | -16 | 29 |
16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 33 | 6 | 11 | 16 | 50 | 69 | -19 | 29 |
R | FC VolendamVolendam | 33 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 33 | 86 | -53 | 19 |
R | Vitesse | 33 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 28 | 72 | -44 | 5 |
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