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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 39.97%. A win for Heerenveen had a probability of 38.76% and a draw had a probability of 21.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 7.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (4.94%) and 2-3 (4.66%). The likeliest Heerenveen win was 2-1 (7.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.05%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood.
Result | ||
Heerenveen | Draw | Ajax |
38.76% ( -0.88) | 21.27% ( -0.03) | 39.97% ( 0.9) |
Both teams to score 72.38% ( 0.09) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
73.19% ( 0.12) | 26.8% ( -0.12) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
52.76% ( 0.15) | 47.24% ( -0.16) |
Heerenveen Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.85% ( -0.29) | 15.15% ( 0.28) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
56.26% ( -0.54) | 43.73% ( 0.53) |
Ajax Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85.3% ( 0.39) | 14.69% ( -0.39) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
57.13% ( 0.74) | 42.86% ( -0.75) |
Score Analysis |
Heerenveen | Draw | Ajax |
2-1 @ 7.6% ( -0.1) 3-1 @ 4.78% ( -0.11) 3-2 @ 4.59% ( -0.04) 1-0 @ 4.2% ( -0.07) 2-0 @ 3.96% ( -0.11) 3-0 @ 2.49% ( -0.1) 4-1 @ 2.26% ( -0.08) 4-2 @ 2.16% ( -0.04) 4-3 @ 1.38% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.18% ( -0.06) Other @ 4.15% Total : 38.76% | 1-1 @ 8.05% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 7.29% ( 0) 3-3 @ 2.93% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 2.23% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.77% Total : 21.27% | 1-2 @ 7.72% ( 0.08) 1-3 @ 4.94% ( 0.12) 2-3 @ 4.66% ( 0.07) 0-1 @ 4.27% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 4.09% ( 0.08) 0-3 @ 2.62% ( 0.09) 1-4 @ 2.37% ( 0.09) 2-4 @ 2.24% ( 0.06) 3-4 @ 1.41% ( 0.02) 0-4 @ 1.26% ( 0.06) 1-5 @ 0.91% ( 0.05) Other @ 3.49% Total : 39.97% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | PSV EindhovenPSV | 32 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 107 | 19 | 88 | 87 |
2 | Feyenoord | 32 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 85 | 24 | 61 | 78 |
3 | FC Twente | 32 | 19 | 6 | 7 | 60 | 33 | 27 | 63 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 32 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 64 | 36 | 28 | 61 |
5 | Ajax | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 69 | 59 | 10 | 52 |
6 | NECNijmegen | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 62 | 47 | 15 | 50 |
7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 32 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 46 | 43 | 3 | 49 |
8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 32 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 45 | 42 | 3 | 43 |
9 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 48 | 47 | 1 | 43 |
10 | Heerenveen | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 51 | 65 | -14 | 37 |
11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 32 | 9 | 9 | 14 | 36 | 55 | -19 | 36 |
12 | PEC Zwolle | 32 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 43 | 64 | -21 | 35 |
13 | Almere CityAlmere City | 32 | 7 | 13 | 12 | 32 | 52 | -20 | 34 |
14 | Heracles | 32 | 9 | 5 | 18 | 41 | 70 | -29 | 32 |
15 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 32 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 36 | 52 | -16 | 28 |
16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 46 | 69 | -23 | 26 |
R | FC VolendamVolendam | 32 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 31 | 79 | -48 | 19 |
R | Vitesse | 32 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 25 | 71 | -46 | 2 |
> Eredivisie Full Table |