Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 65.89%. A draw had a probability of 19.8% and a win for SC Farense had a probability of 14.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (11.07%) and 1-2 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.42%), while for a SC Farense win it was 1-0 (4.52%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
Result | ||
SC Farense | Draw | Benfica |
14.27% ( -0.05) | 19.83% ( 0.19) | 65.89% ( -0.14) |
Both teams to score 50.16% ( -0.79) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
56.21% ( -0.98) | 43.79% ( 0.98) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.82% ( -0.96) | 66.18% ( 0.97) |
SC Farense Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
57.29% ( -0.68) | 42.71% ( 0.68) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
20.95% ( -0.58) | 79.04% ( 0.58) |
Benfica Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
87.56% ( -0.33) | 12.44% ( 0.33) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
61.63% ( -0.69) | 38.37% ( 0.7) |
Score Analysis |
SC Farense | Draw | Benfica |
1-0 @ 4.52% ( 0.11) 2-1 @ 4.01% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 1.92% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.18% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 1.14% ( -0.03) Other @ 1.51% Total : 14.28% | 1-1 @ 9.42% ( 0.11) 0-0 @ 5.31% ( 0.22) 2-2 @ 4.18% ( -0.09) Other @ 0.92% Total : 19.83% | 0-2 @ 11.54% ( 0.2) 0-1 @ 11.07% ( 0.33) 1-2 @ 9.82% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 8.02% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 6.82% ( -0.1) 0-4 @ 4.18% ( -0.04) 1-4 @ 3.55% ( -0.1) 2-3 @ 2.9% ( -0.1) 0-5 @ 1.74% ( -0.04) 2-4 @ 1.51% ( -0.07) 1-5 @ 1.48% ( -0.06) Other @ 3.25% Total : 65.89% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 31 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 89 | 29 | 60 | 81 |
2 | Benfica | 31 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 71 | 25 | 46 | 76 |
3 | Porto | 31 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 57 | 26 | 31 | 63 |
4 | Braga | 31 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 62 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 18 | 6 | 7 | 46 | 32 | 14 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 32 | 34 | -2 | 46 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 45 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 36 |
9 | Casa Pia | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 35 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 31 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 42 | 44 | -2 | 34 |
11 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 33 |
12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 5 | 17 | 9 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 32 |
13 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 32 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 35 | 57 | -22 | 30 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 31 | 6 | 11 | 14 | 32 | 49 | -17 | 29 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 31 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 34 | 66 | -32 | 28 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 31 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 31 | 65 | -34 | 23 |
18 | Vizela | 31 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 30 | 63 | -33 | 22 |
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