Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estoril Praia win with a probability of 36.64%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 36.22% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estoril Praia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.01%) and 2-0 (6.49%). The likeliest Arouca win was 0-1 (10.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 8% likelihood.
Result | ||
Estoril Praia | Draw | Arouca |
36.64% | 27.14% | 36.22% |
Both teams to score 50.47% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
45.08% | 54.92% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
23.79% | 76.21% |
Estoril Praia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.17% | 28.83% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.32% | 64.68% |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.92% | 29.08% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35% | 64.99% |
Score Analysis |
Estoril Praia | Draw | Arouca |
1-0 @ 10.42% 2-1 @ 8.01% 2-0 @ 6.49% 3-1 @ 3.32% 3-0 @ 2.69% 3-2 @ 2.05% 4-1 @ 1.03% Other @ 2.62% Total : 36.63% | 1-1 @ 12.87% 0-0 @ 8.38% 2-2 @ 4.95% Other @ 0.93% Total : 27.13% | 0-1 @ 10.35% 1-2 @ 7.95% 0-2 @ 6.39% 1-3 @ 3.28% 0-3 @ 2.63% 2-3 @ 2.04% 1-4 @ 1.01% Other @ 2.56% Total : 36.22% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 31 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 89 | 29 | 60 | 81 |
2 | Benfica | 31 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 71 | 25 | 46 | 76 |
3 | Porto | 31 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 57 | 26 | 31 | 63 |
4 | Braga | 31 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 62 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 32 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 47 | 34 | 13 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 49 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 45 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 36 |
9 | Rio AveRio Ave | 32 | 6 | 17 | 9 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 35 |
10 | Casa Pia | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 35 |
11 | SC FarenseFarense | 31 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 42 | 44 | -2 | 34 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 33 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 33 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 32 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 36 | 58 | -22 | 31 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 31 | 6 | 11 | 14 | 32 | 49 | -17 | 29 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 31 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 34 | 66 | -32 | 28 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 31 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 31 | 65 | -34 | 23 |
R | Vizela | 32 | 4 | 10 | 18 | 30 | 64 | -34 | 22 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |