Ajax play host to Feyenoord in the Eredivisie on Sunday afternoon looking for the victory which will strengthen their position at the top of the standings.
While the home side currently lead PSV Eindhoven by just two points, Feyenoord will keep the title race and battle for second wide open if they can claim three points in Amsterdam.
Match preview
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Ahead of the first leg of their Champions League last-16 tie with Benfica, everything appeared to be going swimmingly for Ajax, the Dutch giants in a winnable continental clash and sitting five points clear in the Eredivisie.
However, recording just three victories from six outings has lowered the mood at the club, their defeat at home to Benfica earlier this week resulting in a surprise exit from European football's premier competition.
A late Darwin Nunez goal proved to be the difference, Benfica becoming the first club to prevent Ajax from scoring in a match since Go Ahead Eagles on November 7.
The same opponents also beat Ajax in the reverse fixture at the end of last month, and Erik ten Hag's team now sit just two points clear of PSV with eight matches remaining.
On paper, the upcoming showdown with Feyenoord is their most difficult during the run-in, even if just five goals have been conceded in 13 home league games this campaign.
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Having dropped points against AZ Alkmaar and Groningen, Feyenoord's only realistic way of getting back into the title race is with victory on Sunday afternoon.
The current gap stands at eight points, with Arne Slot and his squad perhaps placing more focus on snatching the second Champions League spot with PSV six points ahead.
Despite their recent inconsistency in the Dutch top flight, Feyenoord remain on course in the Europa Conference League, confirming their place in the quarter-finals with a 3-1 triumph over Partizan Belgrade earlier this week.
The latest goal glut has taken Feyenoord's tally to 25 strikes from nine games, with Cyriel Dessers scoring in four matches in a row in all competitions.
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Team News
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Despite witnessing his side fall to defeat against Benfica, Ten Hag is unlikely to make significant alterations to his Ajax XI.
Davy Klaassen could be drafted back into the team in place of Steven Berghuis, but that may prove to be the only change to the starting lineup.
Feyenoord will have to make do without Orkun Kokcu, who serves a suspension after collecting his fifth yellow card last weekend.
Jens Toornstra appears to be the frontrunner to get the nod in his absence, but Gernot Trauner, Tyrell Malacia and Marcus Pedersen are all likely to miss out due to coronavirus.
Having been used regularly of late, Arsenal loanee Reiss Nelson will hope to make just his fifth league start of the campaign.
Ajax possible starting lineup:
Onana; Mazraoui, Timber, Martinez, Blind; Alvarez, Gravenberch; Antony, Klaassen, Tadic; Haller
Feyenoord possible starting lineup:
Marciano; Aursnes, Senesi, Hendriks; Geertruida, Toornstra, Hendrix, Sinisterra; Til, Nelson; Dessers
We say: Ajax 3-1 Feyenoord
Neither team can claim to be in particularly good form ahead of this contest, throwing up the possibility of an upset. However, there is an inevitability about Ajax rediscovering their clinical touch at some stage, and we feel that the home side will rise to the occasion at the weekend.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 74.28%. A draw had a probability of 14.7% and a win for Feyenoord had a probability of 10.99%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.79%) and 3-1 (8.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.36%), while for a Feyenoord win it was 1-2 (3.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
