Serie A | Gameweek 29
Apr 8, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Stadio Olimpico
We said: Lazio 1-1 Juventus
As Juventus usually set up to avoid leaking goals and then strike on the break, and Lazio certainly know how to keep the back door shut, a low-scoring encounter should be expected in the Eternal City.
Leaving Stadio Olimpico with a point would represent a good result for Juve in normal times, but such is their deficit to the top four, a share of the spoils would leave them running out of time to close the gap.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 38.19%. A win for Juventus had a probability of 33.72% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.99%) and 2-0 (7.12%). The likeliest Juventus win was 0-1 (10.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.17%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lazio would win this match.
| Result |
| Lazio | Draw | Juventus |
38.19% ( -0.84) | 28.09% ( 0.07) | 33.72% ( 0.77) |
| Both teams to score 47.37% ( -0.04) |
| 41.3% ( -0.12) | 58.71% ( 0.12) |
| 20.76% ( -0.09) | 79.24% ( 0.09) |
| 70.26% ( -0.56) | 29.75% ( 0.55) |
