Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 44.62%. A win for Chaves had a probability of 28.06% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.72%) and 2-0 (8.58%). The likeliest Chaves win was 0-1 (9.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.84%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vitoria de Guimaraes would win this match.
Result | ||
Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Chaves |
44.62% ( 0.09) | 27.32% ( -0.04) | 28.06% ( -0.04) |
Both teams to score 47.42% ( 0.1) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
42.38% ( 0.14) | 57.62% ( -0.15) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
21.61% ( 0.11) | 78.39% ( -0.12) |
Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.29% ( 0.11) | 25.7% ( -0.11) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
39.37% ( 0.15) | 60.62% ( -0.15) |
Chaves Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
63.82% ( 0.04) | 36.17% ( -0.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
27.04% ( 0.04) | 72.96% ( -0.05) |
Score Analysis |
Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Chaves |
1-0 @ 12.63% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 8.72% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 8.58% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 3.95% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 3.89% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.01% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.34% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.32% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.18% Total : 44.62% | 1-1 @ 12.84% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 9.3% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 4.44% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.74% Total : 27.32% | 0-1 @ 9.46% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 6.53% 0-2 @ 4.81% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.21% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.63% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.5% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.92% Total : 28.06% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 93 | 29 | 64 | 87 |
2 | Benfica | 33 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 76 | 27 | 49 | 79 |
3 | Porto | 33 | 21 | 6 | 6 | 62 | 27 | 35 | 69 |
4 | Braga | 33 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 71 | 49 | 22 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 33 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 49 | 37 | 12 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 33 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 34 | 34 | 0 | 52 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 53 | 47 | 6 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 42 |
9 | SC FarenseFarense | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 37 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 36 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 36 |
12 | Casa Pia | 33 | 9 | 8 | 16 | 36 | 49 | -13 | 35 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 33 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 37 | 60 | -23 | 31 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 30 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 71 | -35 | 29 |
R | Vizela | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 25 |
R | ChavesChaves | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 23 |
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