Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 59.93%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 18.66%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-1 with a probability of 10%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.96%) and 0-2 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.07%), while for a Gil Vicente win it was 1-0 (5.09%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
Result | ||
Gil Vicente | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
18.66% ( 0.05) | 21.4% ( 0.03) | 59.93% ( -0.08) |
Both teams to score 54.66% ( -0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.31% ( -0.06) | 42.69% ( 0.06) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
34.9% ( -0.06) | 65.09% ( 0.06) |
Gil Vicente Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
63.44% ( 0.02) | 36.56% ( -0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
26.65% ( 0.02) | 73.34% ( -0.02) |
Sporting Lisbon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
86.15% ( -0.04) | 13.84% ( 0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
58.78% ( -0.09) | 41.22% ( 0.08) |
Score Analysis |
Gil Vicente | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
1-0 @ 5.09% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 5.07% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 2.56% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 1.7% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.68% ( 0) Other @ 2.56% Total : 18.66% | 1-1 @ 10.07% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 5.06% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.01% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.11% ( -0) Other @ 0.15% Total : 21.4% | 0-1 @ 10% ( 0) 1-2 @ 9.96% 0-2 @ 9.89% ( -0) 1-3 @ 6.56% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 6.52% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 3.3% ( -0) 1-4 @ 3.24% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 3.22% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.63% ( -0) 1-5 @ 1.28% ( -0.01) 0-5 @ 1.28% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.03% Total : 59.93% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 31 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 89 | 29 | 60 | 81 |
2 | Benfica | 31 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 71 | 25 | 46 | 76 |
3 | Porto | 31 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 57 | 26 | 31 | 63 |
4 | Braga | 31 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 62 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 18 | 6 | 7 | 46 | 32 | 14 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 32 | 34 | -2 | 46 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 45 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 36 |
9 | Casa Pia | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 35 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 31 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 42 | 44 | -2 | 34 |
11 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 33 |
12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 5 | 17 | 9 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 32 |
13 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 32 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 35 | 57 | -22 | 30 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 31 | 6 | 11 | 14 | 32 | 49 | -17 | 29 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 31 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 34 | 66 | -32 | 28 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 31 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 31 | 65 | -34 | 23 |
18 | Vizela | 31 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 30 | 63 | -33 | 22 |
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