Looking to keep their extremely slim hopes of defending their league title alive, Sporting Lisbon play host to Gil Vicente at the Estadio Jose Alvalade in round 32 of the Primeira Liga on Sunday.
The Gilistas, on the other hand, head into the weekend without a win in any of their last five games and will be aiming to end this dry spell and strengthen their hopes of a Conference League qualification finish.
Match preview
© Reuters
Sporting Lisbon ended their two-game losing streak last Monday as they cruised to a comfortable 3-0 over Boavista when the sides locked horns at the Estadio do Bessa.
After Matheus Nunes broke the deadlock in the 37th minute, Rodrigo Abascal scored a 58th-minute own goal to put the defending champion two goals up before substitute Bruno Tabata converted his penalty with seven minutes on the clock to cap off a fine team display.
Prior to that, Ruben Amorim's men fell to a 2-0 defeat at the hands of Benfica on April 17 before suffering a 1-0 loss to fellow rivals Porto in the second leg of their Taca de Portugal semi-final clash four days later.
Sporting Lisbon now head into the weekend on a run of six wins from their last seven outings while they are unbeaten in all but one of their last 12 since a 2-1 loss to Braga on January 22.
With 76 points from 31 games, the Leoes are currently second in the Primeira Liga standings, six points off first-placed Porto with three games to go before the curtain closes on the 2021-22 campaign.
© Reuters
Gil Vicente, on the other hand, failed to arrest their slump in form last time out as they could only salvage a 1-1 draw with Pacos de Ferreira on home turf.
Following a drab first half at the Estadio Cidade de Barcelos, Vitorino Antunes put the visitors ahead from the penalty spot in the 52nd minute but substitute Fran Navarro restored parity with his 15th goal of the season 20 minutes later.
Ricardo Soares's side have now failed to taste victory in any of their last five outings, picking up three draws and losing two since a 1-0 victory away to Braga on March 13.
While Gil Vicente will look to arrest this slump in form, next up is the stern test of going up against an opposing side who they are on a five-game losing streak against and have won 12 of their last 15 encounters since 2011.
The Gilistas have picked up 12 wins, 12 draws and lost seven of their 31 league games to collect 48 points and sit fifth in the standings, five points above sixth-placed Vitoria de Guimaraes just outside the Conference League qualification spot.
- W
- W
- W
- W
- L
- W
- W
- W
- W
- L
- L
- W
- W
- D
- L
- L
- D
- D
Team News
© Reuters
Sporting Lisbon will take to the pitch without the services of 31-year-old defender Sebastian Coates, who sustained a knee injury in the game against Boavista last Monday.
In his absence, Luis Neto should occupy the central role in Amorim's three-man back line, with Zouhair Feddal and Goncalo Inacio on either flank.
Meanwhile, 27-year-old forward Murilo de Souza is out of contention for Gil Vicente after seeing his season cut short when he sustained an Achilles tendon injury back in January.
Navarro took his goal tally in the Primeira Liga to 15 with his equaliser against Pacos de Ferreira last time out and we expect the Spanish forward to return to the starting lineup on Sunday.
Sporting Lisbon possible starting lineup:
Adnan; Inacio, Neto, Feddal; Reis, Nunes, Ugarte, Porro; Goncalves, Paulinho, Sarabia
Gil Vicente possible starting lineup:
Frelih; Carlos, Silva, Fernandes, Talocha; Carvalho, Pedrinho; Fujimoto, Santana, Lino; Navarro
We say: Sporting Lisbon 3-1 Gil Vicente
Looking at past results between the sides, Sporting Lisbon head into this one as strong favourites to come away with the desired results having won 12 of their last 14 encounters. While Gil Vicente have lost just once away from home since last August, we are tipping the hosts to come away with all three points and keep their title hopes alive.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 60.19%. A draw had a probability of 21.7% and a win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 18.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.37%) and 2-1 (9.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.27%), while for a Gil Vicente win it was 0-1 (5.31%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
