Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 58.78%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for Chaves had a probability of 18.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.3%) and 1-2 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.57%), while for a Chaves win it was 1-0 (5.64%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.
Result | ||
Chaves | Draw | Braga |
18.95% ( -0.17) | 22.27% ( -0.08) | 58.78% ( 0.25) |
Both teams to score 52.27% ( -0.03) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
53.89% ( 0.11) | 46.1% ( -0.11) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
31.6% ( 0.1) | 68.4% ( -0.1) |
Chaves Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
61.75% ( -0.13) | 38.25% ( 0.13) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
24.99% ( -0.12) | 75% ( 0.12) |
Braga Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.65% ( 0.12) | 15.34% ( -0.12) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
55.89% ( 0.23) | 44.1% ( -0.23) |
Score Analysis |
Chaves | Draw | Braga |
1-0 @ 5.64% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 5.08% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 2.71% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 1.63% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 1.53% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.36% Total : 18.95% | 1-1 @ 10.57% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 5.87% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 4.76% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 0.95% ( -0) Other @ 0.12% Total : 22.27% | 0-1 @ 10.99% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 10.3% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 9.91% ( 0) 0-3 @ 6.44% ( 0.05) 1-3 @ 6.19% ( 0.03) 0-4 @ 3.02% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 2.98% ( 0) 1-4 @ 2.9% ( 0.02) 2-4 @ 1.39% ( 0.01) 0-5 @ 1.13% ( 0.02) 1-5 @ 1.09% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.42% Total : 58.76% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 93 | 29 | 64 | 87 |
2 | Benfica | 33 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 76 | 27 | 49 | 79 |
3 | Porto | 33 | 21 | 6 | 6 | 62 | 27 | 35 | 69 |
4 | Braga | 33 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 71 | 49 | 22 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 33 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 49 | 37 | 12 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 33 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 34 | 34 | 0 | 52 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 53 | 47 | 6 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 42 |
9 | SC FarenseFarense | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 37 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 36 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 36 |
12 | Casa Pia | 33 | 9 | 8 | 16 | 36 | 49 | -13 | 35 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 33 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 37 | 60 | -23 | 31 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 30 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 71 | -35 | 29 |
R | Vizela | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 25 |
R | ChavesChaves | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 23 |
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