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UEFA Nations League header

UEFA Nations League
Belgium national football team
Nations League | League A
Jun 8, 2022 at 7.45pm UK
 
Poland national football team

Belgium
6 - 1
Poland

Witsel (42'), De Bruyne (59'), Trossard (73', 80'), Dendoncker (83'), Openda (90+3')
Witsel (36')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Lewandowski (28')
Krychowiak (14')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Nations League clash between Belgium and Poland, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Belgium

Last Six:
Last Game: Belgium 6-1 Poland
Wednesday, June 8 at 7.45pm in Nations League
Next Game: Wales vs. Belgium
Saturday, June 11 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Poland

Last Six:
Last Game: Belgium 6-1 Poland
Wednesday, June 8 at 7.45pm in Nations League
Next Game: Netherlands vs. Poland
Saturday, June 11 at 7.45pm in Nations League

We said: Belgium 2-1 Poland

 The footballing gods should not deliver a drab affair between two sides whose defining qualities lie in the final third, although losing top scorer Lukaku is a killer blow for Belgium. Poland would have expected a greater margin of victory against a makeshift Wales XI, though, and with Martinez issuing a rallying cry to his Belgium side to respond, we have faith in the world's second-ranked nation to get back on track. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belgium win with a probability of 55.5%. A win for Poland had a probability of 22.8% and a draw had a probability of 21.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Belgium win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.22%) and 2-0 (8.14%). The likeliest Poland win was 1-2 (5.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.87%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Belgium would win this match.

Result
BelgiumDrawPoland
55.5% (-0.040999999999997 -0.04) 21.7% (-0.0079999999999991 -0.01) 22.8% (0.047999999999998 0.05)
Both teams to score 60.28% (0.097000000000001 0.1)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
61.65% (0.097000000000001 0.1)38.34% (-0.1 -0.1)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
39.37% (0.104 0.1)60.63% (-0.106 -0.11)
Belgium Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.22% (0.019000000000005 0.02)13.78% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
58.91% (0.039999999999999 0.04)41.09% (-0.042999999999999 -0.04)
Poland Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.91% (0.096000000000004 0.1)30.09% (-0.097999999999999 -0.1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.78% (0.115 0.12)66.22% (-0.11800000000001 -0.12)
Score Analysis
    Belgium 55.5%
    Poland 22.8%
    Draw 21.7%
BelgiumDrawPoland
2-1 @ 9.78% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
1-0 @ 8.22% (-0.032999999999999 -0.03)
2-0 @ 8.14% (-0.026999999999999 -0.03)
3-1 @ 6.46% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-0 @ 5.38% (-0.013 -0.01)
3-2 @ 3.88% (0.012 0.01)
4-1 @ 3.2% (0.0030000000000001 0)
4-0 @ 2.67% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
4-2 @ 1.92% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
5-1 @ 1.27% (0.002 0)
5-0 @ 1.06% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 3.52%
Total : 55.5%
1-1 @ 9.87% (-0.013 -0.01)
2-2 @ 5.87% (0.013 0.01)
0-0 @ 4.15% (-0.019 -0.02)
3-3 @ 1.55% (0.0090000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 0.25%
Total : 21.7%
1-2 @ 5.93% (0.0089999999999995 0.01)
0-1 @ 4.98% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-2 @ 2.99% (0.0020000000000002 0)
1-3 @ 2.37% (0.01 0.01)
2-3 @ 2.35% (0.012 0.01)
0-3 @ 1.2% (0.004 0)
Other @ 2.99%
Total : 22.8%

How you voted: Belgium vs Poland

Belgium
58.0%
Draw
17.2%
Poland
24.8%
431
rhs 2.0
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