Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 75.53%. A draw had a probability of 15.7% and a win for Toronto had a probability of 8.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.68%) and 3-0 (10.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.46%), while for a Toronto win it was 0-1 (3.08%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York Red Bulls would win this match.
Result | ||
New York Red Bulls | Draw | Toronto |
75.53% ( -0.16) | 15.68% ( 0.21) | 8.8% ( -0.05) |
Both teams to score 45.8% ( -1.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
60.36% ( -1.19) | 39.64% ( 1.19) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
38.01% ( -1.25) | 61.99% ( 1.25) |
New York Red Bulls Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
91.14% ( -0.33) | 8.86% ( 0.32) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
69.67% ( -0.8) | 30.33% ( 0.79) |
Toronto Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
50.25% ( -0.92) | 49.75% ( 0.92) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
15.51% ( -0.66) | 84.48% ( 0.65) |
Score Analysis |
New York Red Bulls | Draw | Toronto |
2-0 @ 12.94% ( 0.32) 1-0 @ 10.68% ( 0.43) 3-0 @ 10.45% ( 0.1) 2-1 @ 9.04% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 7.3% ( -0.12) 4-0 @ 6.34% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 4.43% ( -0.14) 5-0 @ 3.07% ( -0.06) 3-2 @ 2.55% ( -0.11) 5-1 @ 2.15% ( -0.1) 4-2 @ 1.55% ( -0.09) 6-0 @ 1.24% ( -0.04) Other @ 3.78% Total : 75.51% | 1-1 @ 7.46% ( 0.11) 0-0 @ 4.41% ( 0.24) 2-2 @ 3.16% ( -0.09) Other @ 0.66% Total : 15.68% | 0-1 @ 3.08% ( 0.09) 1-2 @ 2.6% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 1.07% ( 0) Other @ 2.04% Total : 8.8% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 32 | 18 | 14 | 24 |
2 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 21 |
3 | Toronto | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 19 |
4 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 17 |
5 | Columbus Crew | 10 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 15 |
6 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 16 | 3 | 14 |
7 | DC United | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 14 |
8 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 14 |
9 | New York City FCNY City | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 14 |
10 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 12 |
11 | CF MontrealMontreal | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 12 |
12 | Nashville SCNashville | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 11 |
13 | Chicago Fire | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 10 |
14 | Orlando City | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 9 |
15 | New England RevolutionNew England | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 7 |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 21 |
2 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 20 |
3 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 19 |
4 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 10 | 8 | 18 |
5 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 18 |
6 | Austin FCAustin | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 13 | 1 | 16 |
7 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 15 |
8 | Houston DynamoHouston | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 14 |
9 | St Louis City | 10 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 13 |
10 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 11 |
11 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 10 |
12 | Portland TimbersPortland | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 10 |
13 | Dallas | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 8 |
14 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 7 |