Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 71.55%. A draw had a probability of 17.2% and a win for Toronto had a probability of 11.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.04%) and 2-1 (9.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.13%), while for a Toronto win it was 0-1 (3.48%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.
Result | ||
New York City FC | Draw | Toronto |
71.55% ( 0.23) | 17.19% ( -0.07) | 11.26% ( -0.16) |
Both teams to score 50.14% ( -0.35) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
60.89% ( -0.17) | 39.11% ( 0.16) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
38.56% ( -0.17) | 61.43% ( 0.17) |
New York City FC Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
90.34% ( 0.01) | 9.66% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
67.76% ( 0.03) | 32.23% ( -0.03) |
Toronto Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
55.5% ( -0.4) | 44.5% ( 0.4) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
19.47% ( -0.32) | 80.53% ( 0.32) |
Score Analysis |
New York City FC | Draw | Toronto |
2-0 @ 11.74% ( 0.11) 1-0 @ 10.04% ( 0.08) 2-1 @ 9.51% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 9.15% ( 0.09) 3-1 @ 7.41% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 5.35% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 4.33% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 3% ( -0.04) 5-0 @ 2.5% ( 0.03) 5-1 @ 2.02% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.75% ( -0.02) 6-0 @ 0.97% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.79% Total : 71.54% | 1-1 @ 8.13% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 4.3% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 3.85% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.91% Total : 17.19% | 0-1 @ 3.48% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 3.29% ( -0.05) 0-2 @ 1.41% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.04% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.04% Total : 11.26% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 32 | 18 | 14 | 24 |
2 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 21 |
3 | Toronto | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 19 |
4 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 17 |
5 | Columbus Crew | 10 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 15 |
6 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 16 | 3 | 14 |
7 | DC United | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 14 |
8 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 14 |
9 | New York City FCNY City | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 14 |
10 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 12 |
11 | CF MontrealMontreal | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 12 |
12 | Nashville SCNashville | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 11 |
13 | Chicago Fire | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 10 |
14 | Orlando City | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 9 |
15 | New England RevolutionNew England | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 7 |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 21 |
2 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 20 |
3 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 19 |
4 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 10 | 8 | 18 |
5 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 18 |
6 | Austin FCAustin | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 13 | 1 | 16 |
7 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 15 |
8 | Houston DynamoHouston | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 14 |
9 | St Louis City | 10 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 13 |
10 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 11 |
11 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 10 |
12 | Portland TimbersPortland | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 10 |
13 | Dallas | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 8 |
14 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 7 |