Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 75.29%. A draw had a probability of 17.3% and a win for Cadiz had a probability of 7.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 2-0 with a probability of 16.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (15.51%) and 3-0 (11.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.7%), while for a Cadiz win it was 0-1 (3.64%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
Result | ||
Atletico Madrid | Draw | Cadiz |
75.29% ( 1.77) | 17.3% ( -0.22) | 7.4% ( -1.55) |
Both teams to score 34.42% ( -5.81) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
48.5% ( -3.99) | 51.5% ( 3.99) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
26.69% ( -3.59) | 73.3% ( 3.58) |
Atletico Madrid Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
87.96% ( -0.63) | 12.04% ( 0.63) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
62.48% ( -1.35) | 37.52% ( 1.36) |
Cadiz Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
39.13% ( -6.27) | 60.86% ( 6.27) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
8.91% ( -3.45) | 91.08% ( 3.45) |
Score Analysis |
Atletico Madrid | Draw | Cadiz |
2-0 @ 16.42% ( 1.75) 1-0 @ 15.51% ( 2) 3-0 @ 11.58% ( 0.96) 2-1 @ 8.15% ( -0.73) 4-0 @ 6.13% ( 0.37) 3-1 @ 5.75% ( -0.67) 4-1 @ 3.05% ( -0.44) 5-0 @ 2.6% ( 0.09) 3-2 @ 1.43% ( -0.52) 5-1 @ 1.29% ( -0.23) 6-0 @ 0.92% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.46% Total : 75.29% | 1-1 @ 7.7% ( -0.48) 0-0 @ 7.33% ( 1.1) 2-2 @ 2.02% ( -0.66) Other @ 0.25% Total : 17.31% | 0-1 @ 3.64% ( -0.13) 1-2 @ 1.91% ( -0.56) 0-2 @ 0.9% ( -0.24) Other @ 0.94% Total : 7.4% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Real Madrid | 34 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 74 | 22 | 52 | 87 |
2 | GironaGirona | 34 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 73 | 42 | 31 | 74 |
3 | Barcelona | 34 | 22 | 7 | 5 | 70 | 43 | 27 | 73 |
4 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 34 | 21 | 4 | 9 | 63 | 39 | 24 | 67 |
5 | Athletic Bilbao | 34 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 55 | 33 | 22 | 61 |
6 | Real Sociedad | 34 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 48 | 35 | 13 | 54 |
7 | Real BetisBetis | 34 | 13 | 13 | 8 | 43 | 39 | 4 | 52 |
8 | Valencia | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 37 | 39 | -2 | 47 |
9 | Villarreal | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 56 | 58 | -2 | 45 |
10 | Getafe | 34 | 10 | 13 | 11 | 41 | 47 | -6 | 43 |
11 | AlavesAlaves | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 32 | 38 | -6 | 41 |
12 | Sevilla | 34 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 45 | 46 | -1 | 41 |
13 | Osasuna | 34 | 11 | 6 | 17 | 37 | 51 | -14 | 39 |
14 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 37 |
15 | Celta Vigo | 34 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 40 | 52 | -12 | 34 |
16 | Rayo Vallecano | 34 | 7 | 13 | 14 | 27 | 43 | -16 | 34 |
17 | Mallorca | 34 | 6 | 14 | 14 | 27 | 40 | -13 | 32 |
18 | CadizCadiz | 34 | 4 | 14 | 16 | 23 | 49 | -26 | 26 |
19 | Granada | 34 | 4 | 9 | 21 | 36 | 64 | -28 | 21 |
R | Almeria | 34 | 2 | 11 | 21 | 33 | 67 | -34 | 17 |
> La Liga Full Table |