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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Go Ahead Eagles win with a probability of 45.75%. A win for Vitesse had a probability of 31.1% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Go Ahead Eagles win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.31%) and 2-0 (6.44%). The likeliest Vitesse win was 1-2 (7.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.37%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Go Ahead Eagles would win this match.
Result | ||
Go Ahead Eagles | Draw | Vitesse |
45.75% ( -0.03) | 23.14% ( 0) | 31.1% ( 0.02) |
Both teams to score 62.83% ( -0) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
61.66% ( -0.01) | 38.33% ( 0.01) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
39.38% ( -0.01) | 60.62% ( 0.01) |
Go Ahead Eagles Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.86% ( -0.01) | 17.14% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
52.62% ( -0.02) | 47.37% ( 0.02) |
Vitesse Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.83% ( 0.01) | 24.17% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
41.5% ( 0.01) | 58.49% ( -0.02) |
Score Analysis |
Go Ahead Eagles | Draw | Vitesse |
2-1 @ 9.15% ( -0) 1-0 @ 7.31% ( -0) 2-0 @ 6.44% ( -0) 3-1 @ 5.38% ( -0) 3-2 @ 3.82% ( -0) 3-0 @ 3.79% ( -0) 4-1 @ 2.37% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.68% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.67% ( -0) Other @ 4.14% Total : 45.75% | 1-1 @ 10.37% 2-2 @ 6.5% ( 0) 0-0 @ 4.14% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.81% Other @ 0.31% Total : 23.13% | 1-2 @ 7.37% ( 0) 0-1 @ 5.88% ( 0) 0-2 @ 4.18% ( 0) 1-3 @ 3.49% ( 0) 2-3 @ 3.08% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.98% ( 0) 1-4 @ 1.24% ( 0) 2-4 @ 1.09% ( 0) Other @ 2.81% Total : 31.1% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | PSV EindhovenPSV | 32 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 107 | 19 | 88 | 87 |
2 | Feyenoord | 32 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 85 | 24 | 61 | 78 |
3 | FC Twente | 32 | 19 | 6 | 7 | 60 | 33 | 27 | 63 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 32 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 64 | 36 | 28 | 61 |
5 | Ajax | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 69 | 59 | 10 | 52 |
6 | NECNijmegen | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 62 | 47 | 15 | 50 |
7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 32 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 46 | 43 | 3 | 49 |
8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 32 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 45 | 42 | 3 | 43 |
9 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 48 | 47 | 1 | 43 |
10 | Heerenveen | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 51 | 65 | -14 | 37 |
11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 32 | 9 | 9 | 14 | 36 | 55 | -19 | 36 |
12 | PEC Zwolle | 32 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 43 | 64 | -21 | 35 |
13 | Almere CityAlmere City | 32 | 7 | 13 | 12 | 32 | 52 | -20 | 34 |
14 | Heracles | 32 | 9 | 5 | 18 | 41 | 70 | -29 | 32 |
15 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 32 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 36 | 52 | -16 | 28 |
16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 46 | 69 | -23 | 26 |
R | FC VolendamVolendam | 32 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 31 | 79 | -48 | 19 |
R | Vitesse | 32 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 25 | 71 | -46 | 2 |
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