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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 80.6%. A draw had a probability of 13% and a win for FC Volendam had a probability of 6.41%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 0-2 with a probability of 13.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (11.67%) and 0-1 (9.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.18%), while for a FC Volendam win it was 1-0 (2.31%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
Result | ||
FC Volendam | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
6.41% ( 0.52) | 12.99% ( 0.73) | 80.6% ( -1.25) |
Both teams to score 43.7% ( 0.26) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
64.32% ( -1.43) | 35.67% ( 1.43) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
42.26% ( -1.59) | 57.74% ( 1.59) |
FC Volendam Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
46.92% ( 0.55) | 53.08% ( -0.55) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
13.3% ( 0.34) | 86.7% ( -0.34) |
AZ Alkmaar Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
93.14% ( -0.55) | 6.86% ( 0.54) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
74.77% ( -1.48) | 25.23% ( 1.48) |
Score Analysis |
FC Volendam | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
1-0 @ 2.31% ( 0.2) 2-1 @ 1.96% ( 0.14) Other @ 2.15% Total : 6.41% | 1-1 @ 6.18% ( 0.35) 0-0 @ 3.64% ( 0.25) 2-2 @ 2.62% ( 0.11) Other @ 0.55% Total : 12.99% | 0-2 @ 13.07% ( 0.16) 0-3 @ 11.67% ( -0.22) 0-1 @ 9.75% ( 0.4) 1-2 @ 8.28% ( 0.23) 0-4 @ 7.82% ( -0.39) 1-3 @ 7.4% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 4.96% ( -0.17) 0-5 @ 4.19% ( -0.35) 1-5 @ 2.66% ( -0.17) 2-3 @ 2.34% ( 0.03) 0-6 @ 1.87% ( -0.22) 2-4 @ 1.57% ( -0.03) 1-6 @ 1.19% ( -0.12) Other @ 3.83% Total : 80.6% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | PSV EindhovenPSV | 33 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 108 | 20 | 88 | 88 |
2 | Feyenoord | 33 | 25 | 6 | 2 | 88 | 26 | 62 | 81 |
3 | FC Twente | 33 | 20 | 6 | 7 | 67 | 35 | 32 | 66 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 33 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 67 | 36 | 31 | 64 |
5 | Ajax | 33 | 15 | 10 | 8 | 72 | 59 | 13 | 55 |
6 | NECNijmegen | 33 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 64 | 50 | 14 | 50 |
7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 33 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 46 | 44 | 2 | 49 |
8 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 49 | 47 | 2 | 46 |
9 | Go Ahead Eagles | 33 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 45 | 45 | 0 | 43 |
10 | Heerenveen | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 52 | 68 | -16 | 37 |
11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 37 | 56 | -19 | 37 |
12 | PEC Zwolle | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 44 | 65 | -21 | 36 |
13 | Almere CityAlmere City | 33 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 32 | 55 | -23 | 34 |
14 | Heracles | 33 | 9 | 5 | 19 | 41 | 74 | -33 | 32 |
15 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 37 | 53 | -16 | 29 |
16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 33 | 6 | 11 | 16 | 50 | 69 | -19 | 29 |
R | FC VolendamVolendam | 33 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 33 | 86 | -53 | 19 |
R | Vitesse | 33 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 28 | 72 | -44 | 5 |
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