Two of the top three defensive sides in Serie A go head-to-head on Thursday, so even with a number of men missing at the back for both teams, there is likely to be little to choose between them.
Home advantage bestows a psychological edge to Juve, as they routinely take points off Napoli at their headquarters, and the hosts' squad is more able to withstand the absences afflicting this fiercely-fought contest.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Juventus win with a probability of 43.58%. A win for Napoli had a probability of 29.95% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Juventus win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.87%) and 2-0 (7.91%). The likeliest Napoli win was 0-1 (8.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.57%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood.
