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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 50.48%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for Blackpool had a probability of 23.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.68%) and 2-1 (9.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.17%), while for a Blackpool win it was 0-1 (7.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Derby County in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Derby County.
Result | ||
Derby County | Draw | Blackpool |
50.48% ( 0.2) | 25.73% ( -0.05) | 23.79% ( -0.15) |
Both teams to score 48.45% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
45.45% ( 0.08) | 54.55% ( -0.08) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
24.1% ( 0.06) | 75.9% ( -0.06) |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.35% ( 0.11) | 21.64% ( -0.12) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
45.23% ( 0.18) | 54.77% ( -0.18) |
Blackpool Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
61.83% ( -0.09) | 38.17% ( 0.09) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
25.06% ( -0.09) | 74.93% ( 0.09) |
Score Analysis |
Derby County | Draw | Blackpool |
1-0 @ 12.64% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 9.68% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 9.32% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 4.94% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 4.75% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.29% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.89% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 1.82% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.15% Total : 50.48% | 1-1 @ 12.17% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 8.26% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 4.49% ( -0) Other @ 0.81% Total : 25.73% | 0-1 @ 7.96% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 5.86% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 3.83% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 1.88% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.44% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.23% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.58% Total : 23.79% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Portsmouth | 45 | 27 | 13 | 5 | 76 | 41 | 35 | 94 |
2 | Derby CountyDerby | 45 | 27 | 8 | 10 | 76 | 37 | 39 | 89 |
3 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 45 | 25 | 11 | 9 | 83 | 48 | 35 | 86 |
4 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 45 | 25 | 8 | 12 | 86 | 58 | 28 | 83 |
5 | Barnsley | 45 | 21 | 12 | 12 | 81 | 63 | 18 | 75 |
6 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 45 | 20 | 14 | 11 | 65 | 38 | 27 | 74 |
7 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 45 | 21 | 11 | 13 | 77 | 55 | 22 | 74 |
8 | Blackpool | 45 | 21 | 10 | 14 | 63 | 45 | 18 | 73 |
9 | Stevenage | 45 | 18 | 14 | 13 | 55 | 45 | 10 | 68 |
10 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 45 | 16 | 14 | 15 | 59 | 55 | 4 | 62 |
11 | Leyton Orient | 45 | 17 | 11 | 17 | 50 | 54 | -4 | 62 |
12 | Exeter CityExeter | 45 | 17 | 10 | 18 | 45 | 59 | -14 | 61 |
13 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 45 | 19 | 10 | 16 | 61 | 56 | 5 | 59 |
14 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 45 | 17 | 8 | 20 | 56 | 65 | -9 | 59 |
15 | Bristol Rovers | 45 | 16 | 9 | 20 | 52 | 66 | -14 | 57 |
16 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 45 | 11 | 20 | 14 | 64 | 64 | 0 | 53 |
17 | Reading | 45 | 15 | 11 | 19 | 65 | 68 | -3 | 50 |
18 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 45 | 13 | 9 | 23 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 48 |
19 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 45 | 12 | 11 | 22 | 39 | 61 | -22 | 47 |
20 | Burton Albion | 45 | 12 | 10 | 23 | 39 | 64 | -25 | 46 |
21 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 45 | 12 | 8 | 25 | 40 | 63 | -23 | 44 |
R | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 45 | 9 | 13 | 23 | 46 | 72 | -26 | 40 |
R | Port Vale | 45 | 10 | 10 | 25 | 41 | 74 | -33 | 40 |
R | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 45 | 7 | 9 | 29 | 41 | 79 | -38 | 30 |
> League One Full Table |