Almeria actually won 3-1 in the corresponding match last season, while Rayo recorded a 2-0 victory in their clash in Madrid. We are expecting this to be a cagey affair on the opening night of the new campaign and have therefore had to settle on a low-scoring draw at Power Horse Stadium.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Almeria win with a probability of 41.09%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 31.78% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Almeria win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.52%) and 2-0 (7.53%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 (9.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.85%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood.
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