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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ win with a probability of 63.74%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Willem II had a probability of 15.71%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.9%) and 2-1 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.75%), while for a Willem II win it was 0-1 (4.8%). The actual scoreline of 5-3 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AZ would win this match.
Result | ||
AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Willem II |
63.74% | 20.55% | 15.71% |
Both teams to score 51.34% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.96% | 44.04% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.57% | 66.43% |
AZ Alkmaar Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
86.86% | 13.13% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
60.2% | 39.8% |
Willem II Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
59.1% | 40.89% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
22.54% | 77.46% |
Score Analysis |
AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Willem II |
2-0 @ 11.06% 1-0 @ 10.9% 2-1 @ 9.9% 3-0 @ 7.49% 3-1 @ 6.7% 4-0 @ 3.8% 4-1 @ 3.4% 3-2 @ 2.99% 5-0 @ 1.54% 4-2 @ 1.52% 5-1 @ 1.38% Other @ 3.06% Total : 63.73% | 1-1 @ 9.75% 0-0 @ 5.37% 2-2 @ 4.42% Other @ 1% Total : 20.55% | 0-1 @ 4.8% 1-2 @ 4.36% 0-2 @ 2.15% 2-3 @ 1.32% 1-3 @ 1.3% Other @ 1.78% Total : 15.71% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | PSV EindhovenPSV | 34 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 111 | 21 | 90 | 91 |
2 | Feyenoord | 34 | 26 | 6 | 2 | 92 | 26 | 66 | 84 |
3 | FC Twente | 34 | 21 | 6 | 7 | 69 | 36 | 33 | 69 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 34 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 70 | 39 | 31 | 65 |
5 | Ajax | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 74 | 61 | 13 | 56 |
6 | NECNijmegen | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 68 | 51 | 17 | 53 |
7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 49 | 47 | 2 | 50 |
8 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 34 | 14 | 7 | 13 | 51 | 48 | 3 | 49 |
9 | Go Ahead Eagles | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 47 | 46 | 1 | 46 |
10 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 37 | 56 | -19 | 38 |
11 | Heerenveen | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 53 | 70 | -17 | 37 |
12 | PEC Zwolle | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 45 | 67 | -22 | 36 |
13 | Almere CityAlmere City | 34 | 7 | 13 | 14 | 33 | 59 | -26 | 34 |
14 | Heracles | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 41 | 74 | -33 | 33 |
15 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 38 | 56 | -18 | 29 |
16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 34 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 50 | 73 | -23 | 29 |
R | FC VolendamVolendam | 34 | 4 | 7 | 23 | 34 | 88 | -54 | 19 |
R | Vitesse | 34 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 30 | 74 | -44 | 6 |
> Eredivisie Full Table |