MX23RW : Sunday, April 28 14:05:34| >> :60:5:5:
Copa Sudamericana | Round of 16 | 1st Leg
Jun 28, 2022 at 11.15pm UK
Estadio Gran Parque Central

Nacional
2 - 0
Union

Fagundez (4'), Lozano (21')
Rodriguez (47'), Coelho (86'), Trasante (90')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Polenta (84')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Copa Sudamericana clash between Nacional and Union, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Nacional

Last Six:
Last Game: Danubio 0-1 Nacional
Saturday, June 25 at 7pm in Uruguayan Primera Division

Union

Last Six:
Last Game: Boca Juniors 1-2 Union
Saturday, June 25 at 1.30am in Argentine Primera Division

We said: Nacional 2-1 Union

 There is little to choose between the sides coming into this one, and we expect an open and end-to-end affair with chances at both ends. We also fancy Nacional to claim a hard-fought win and take a narrow lead into the return leg. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 43.51%. A win for Union had a probability of 31.22% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.04%) and 2-0 (7.28%). The likeliest Union win was 0-1 (7.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.95%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.

Result
NacionalDrawUnion
43.51% (-0.075000000000003 -0.08) 25.26% (-0.02 -0.02) 31.22% (0.096 0.1)
Both teams to score 55.43% (0.104 0.1)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.93% (0.115 0.12)48.06% (-0.114 -0.11)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.77% (0.105 0.11)70.23% (-0.104 -0.1)
Nacional Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.94% (0.013999999999996 0.01)22.06% (-0.013000000000002 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.6% (0.017999999999994 0.02)55.4% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
Union Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.11% (0.12100000000001 0.12)28.89% (-0.12 -0.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.24% (0.151 0.15)64.76% (-0.149 -0.15)
Score Analysis
    Nacional 43.51%
    Union 31.22%
    Draw 25.25%
NacionalDrawUnion
1-0 @ 9.63% (-0.041 -0.04)
2-1 @ 9.04% (-0.0050000000000008 -0.01)
2-0 @ 7.28% (-0.03 -0.03)
3-1 @ 4.55% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
3-0 @ 3.67% (-0.014 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.83% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
4-1 @ 1.72%
4-0 @ 1.39% (-0.004 -0)
4-2 @ 1.07% (0.004 0)
Other @ 2.34%
Total : 43.51%
1-1 @ 11.95% (-0.020000000000001 -0.02)
0-0 @ 6.37% (-0.029999999999999 -0.03)
2-2 @ 5.61% (0.015 0.01)
3-3 @ 1.17% (0.0069999999999999 0.01)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 25.25%
0-1 @ 7.91% (-0.011 -0.01)
1-2 @ 7.43% (0.018 0.02)
0-2 @ 4.91% (0.010000000000001 0.01)
1-3 @ 3.07% (0.018 0.02)
2-3 @ 2.32% (0.014 0.01)
0-3 @ 2.03% (0.011 0.01)
1-4 @ 0.95% (0.008 0.01)
Other @ 2.59%
Total : 31.22%

How you voted: Nacional vs Union

Nacional
81.8%
Draw
9.1%
Union
9.1%
22
rhs 2.0
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