Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 58.07%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Zenit St Petersburg had a probability of 18.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.71%) and 2-1 (9.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.93%), while for a Zenit St Petersburg win it was 0-1 (6.1%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
