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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 58.51%. A draw had a probability of 20.8% and a win for Union Berlin had a probability of 20.66%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.45%) and 0-1 (8.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.43%), while for a Union Berlin win it was 2-1 (5.48%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.
Result | ||
Union Berlin | Draw | Bayern Munich |
20.66% ( 0.21) | 20.83% ( 0.04) | 58.51% ( -0.25) |
Both teams to score 60.17% ( 0.2) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
62.94% ( 0.11) | 37.06% ( -0.1) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
40.75% ( 0.11) | 59.25% ( -0.11) |
Union Berlin Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.74% ( 0.26) | 31.26% ( -0.26) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
32.38% ( 0.3) | 67.62% ( -0.3) |
Bayern Munich Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
87.54% ( -0.04) | 12.46% ( 0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
61.58% ( -0.08) | 38.41% ( 0.09) |
Score Analysis |
Union Berlin | Draw | Bayern Munich |
2-1 @ 5.48% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 4.53% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 2.63% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.21% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 2.13% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 1.02% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.65% Total : 20.66% | 1-1 @ 9.43% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.71% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 3.9% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 1.54% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.26% Total : 20.83% | 1-2 @ 9.82% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 8.45% ( -0.07) 0-1 @ 8.11% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 6.82% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 5.87% ( -0.06) 2-3 @ 3.96% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 3.55% ( -0.02) 0-4 @ 3.05% ( -0.04) 2-4 @ 2.06% ( 0.01) 1-5 @ 1.48% ( -0.01) 0-5 @ 1.27% ( -0.02) Other @ 4.06% Total : 58.51% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 31 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 77 | 22 | 55 | 81 |
2 | Bayern MunichBayern | 31 | 22 | 3 | 6 | 89 | 38 | 51 | 69 |
3 | Stuttgart | 31 | 20 | 4 | 7 | 70 | 38 | 32 | 64 |
4 | RB Leipzig | 31 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 73 | 35 | 38 | 62 |
5 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 31 | 16 | 9 | 6 | 59 | 39 | 20 | 57 |
6 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 31 | 11 | 12 | 8 | 47 | 42 | 5 | 45 |
7 | Freiburg | 31 | 11 | 7 | 13 | 43 | 55 | -12 | 40 |
8 | Augsburg | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 48 | 52 | -4 | 39 |
9 | Hoffenheim | 31 | 11 | 6 | 14 | 55 | 63 | -8 | 39 |
10 | Heidenheim | 31 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 44 | 52 | -8 | 37 |
11 | Werder Bremen | 31 | 10 | 7 | 14 | 41 | 50 | -9 | 37 |
12 | Wolfsburg | 31 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 37 | 51 | -14 | 34 |
13 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 31 | 7 | 11 | 13 | 53 | 60 | -7 | 32 |
14 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 31 | 8 | 6 | 17 | 26 | 50 | -24 | 30 |
15 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 31 | 6 | 12 | 13 | 37 | 62 | -25 | 30 |
16 | Mainz 05Mainz | 31 | 5 | 13 | 13 | 32 | 49 | -17 | 28 |
17 | FC Koln | 31 | 4 | 11 | 16 | 24 | 54 | -30 | 23 |
R | SV Darmstadt 98Darmstadt | 31 | 3 | 8 | 20 | 30 | 73 | -43 | 17 |
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