Almere City and Emmen will be looking to take a giant step towards securing the final spot in the 2023-24 Eredivisie campaign when they face off in the first leg of their promotion playoff final on Tuesday.
Almere defeated VVV-Venlo via penalties in the semi-final stage, while Emmen were far too strong for NAC Breda as they claimed a comfortable aggregate victory.
Match preview
Emmen claimed a routine 2-0 win over Breda at De Oude Meerdijk on Saturday to complete a 4-1 aggregate triumph over the Eerste Divisie side.
Off the back of a drab opening 45 minutes, second-half goals from Richairo Zivkovic and Jasin-Amin Assehnoun got the job done for Dick Lukkien's men.
That was a second consecutive victory for the Kannibals, who were on a four-game losing streak prior to the first leg of their last-four encounter against Breda.
Next up is the task of facing off against an opposing outfit with little separating the teams judging by recent encounters, as the last eight clashes have yielded two wins apiece and four draws.
Having picked up a first away win in over a month last time out, Tuesday's visitors now go in search of consecutive victories on the road for the first time since July.
Almere held their nerve from 12 yards to see off the threat of VVV-Venlo in a tense encounter at the Yanmar Stadion on Saturday afternoon.
Following a 1-1 draw in the first leg, Soulaiman Allouch cancelled out Lance Duijvestijn's opener to send the tie to penalties, where Nordin Bakker deliver the goods for Alex Pastoor's men with three crucial saves.
De Zwarte Schapen are now unbeaten in five of their last six outings across all competitions but have managed to keep only one clean sheet in that time.
Aiming to gain promotion to the Dutch top flight for the first time ever, Tuesday's hosts will need to make home advantage count and put themselves in the driving seat ahead of Sunday's return leg.
Team News
Jeff Hardeveld, Mart Lieder and Maikel Kieftenbeld remain ruled for Emmen through knee injuries, while Rui-Jorge Mendes continues to battle with a muscle problem.
The home side will also have to navigate the absence of Metehan Guclu, with the forward currently without an appearance since November.
Jasin-Amin Assehnoun got himself on the scoresheet after coming on a second-half substitute last time out and could be rewarded with a place in the starting XI here.
Faiz Mattoir is still unavailable for Almere due to a knee problem which has seen the Comoros international fail to feature in over seven months.
However, 34-year-old Danny Post is eligible to return to action for the visitors in this one having served a one-game suspension against Venlo.
Almere City possible starting lineup:
Bakker; Castell, Barbet, Van Bruggen, Akujobi; Smeets, Pena, Duijvestijn; Limbombe, Pascu, Hilterman
Emmen possible starting lineup:
Van der Hart; Burnet, Veldmate, Araujo, Te Wierik; El Messaoudi, Vlak; Romeny, Diemers, Antonisse; Zivkovic
We say: Almere City 1-1 Emmen
While both teams have been in decent form in front of goal of late, they have struggled on the defensive side, so we are expecting an enthralling affair. We can also see the teams cancelling each out to settle for a share of the spoils in the end.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Almere City win with a probability of 45.85%. A win for Emmen had a probability of 29.22% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Almere City win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.26%) and 2-0 (7.7%). The likeliest Emmen win was 0-1 (7.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.79%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Almere City would win this match.
