Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Central Coast Mariners win with a probability of 57.95%. A draw had a probability of 21.3% and a win for Macarthur had a probability of 20.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Central Coast Mariners win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.71%) and 1-0 (8.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.76%), while for a Macarthur win it was 1-2 (5.53%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Central Coast Mariners would win this match.
Result | ||
Central Coast Mariners | Draw | Macarthur |
57.95% ( 0.22) | 21.26% ( -0.07) | 20.79% ( -0.14) |
Both teams to score 58.85% ( 0.03) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
61.12% ( 0.14) | 38.88% ( -0.14) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
38.8% ( 0.15) | 61.19% ( -0.15) |
Central Coast Mariners Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
86.79% ( 0.11) | 13.21% ( -0.11) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
60.05% ( 0.22) | 39.95% ( -0.22) |
Macarthur Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.8% ( -0.05) | 32.19% ( 0.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.32% ( -0.06) | 68.68% ( 0.06) |
Score Analysis |
Central Coast Mariners | Draw | Macarthur |
2-1 @ 9.88% ( 0) 2-0 @ 8.71% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.61% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 6.66% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 5.88% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 3.78% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 3.37% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 2.98% ( 0.03) 4-2 @ 1.91% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 1.37% ( 0.02) 5-0 @ 1.2% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.61% Total : 57.95% | 1-1 @ 9.76% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 5.6% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 4.25% ( -0.03) 3-3 @ 1.43% ( 0) Other @ 0.23% Total : 21.26% | 1-2 @ 5.53% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 4.82% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 2.73% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 2.11% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.09% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.03% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.47% Total : 20.79% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 27 | 17 | 4 | 6 | 49 | 27 | 22 | 55 |
2 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 27 | 15 | 8 | 4 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 53 |
3 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 27 | 10 | 12 | 5 | 43 | 33 | 10 | 42 |
4 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 27 | 12 | 5 | 10 | 52 | 41 | 11 | 41 |
5 | Macarthur | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 41 |
6 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 50 | 38 | 12 | 39 |
7 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 27 | 11 | 4 | 12 | 44 | 48 | -4 | 37 |
8 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 52 | 53 | -1 | 32 |
9 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 30 |
10 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 28 |
11 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 27 | 7 | 5 | 15 | 36 | 55 | -19 | 26 |
12 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 27 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 46 | 69 | -23 | 22 |
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