Seeking to bounce back from a six-goal drubbing by Borussia Dortmund, Wolfsburg will welcome Mainz 05 to the Volkswagen Arena for their Bundesliga clash on Friday.
The visitors, meanwhile, will be looking to end a four-game winless run and claim their first away victory in any competition since October last year.
Match preview
© Reuters
Wolfsburg were unable to follow up their 4-0 win over Arminia Bielefeld as they were thrashed 6-1 away at Borussia Dortmund last weekend.
Die Wolfe were condemned to their heaviest defeat since October 2019 when BVB scored six goals before the hour mark, with Ridle Baku then netting a consolation goal nine minutes from time.
Despite losing four of their last five matches, in which they have conceded 14 goals, Wolfsburg sporting director Jorg Schmadtke has publicly stated that head coach Florian Kohfeldt does not need to fear for his job.
With just four Bundesliga games remaining, Wolfsburg sit 13th in the table and six points clear of the relegation playoff position, which is currently occupied by Stuttgart, who Die Wolfe lock horns with at the end of this month.
Wolfsburg head into Friday's game having won only four of their last 13 league games on home soil, though three of these victories have been in their last five.
Securing all three points at the Volkswagen Arena would see them claim back-to-back home victories for the first time since August 2021 and for the first time under the tutelage of Kohfeldt.
© Reuters
Mainz's search for their first win in April goes on after they played out a goalless draw at home against Stuttgart last weekend.
Bo Svensson's men failed to register a single shot on target but they did manage to keep their 10th clean sheet of the campaign, with league leaders Bayern Munich (11) the only Bundesliga side to have kept more so far this term.
The 05ers had an outside chance of qualifying for Europe, but their hopes now seem all but over as they are ninth in the table and eight points behind Union Berlin in sixth place.
Mainz head to Wolfsburg with the second-worst away record in the German top flight this season, having accumulated only eight points from 15 games on the road; only basement club Greuther Furth (three) have picked up fewer away points.
Svensson's side have failed to win any of their last 10 away league matches but they have beaten Wolfsburg in their last two meetings, winning 3-2 at the Volkswagen Arena in May last season and 3-0 on home soil in December this campaign, so they can take some confidence into Friday's contest.
- W
- L
- L
- L
- W
- L
- L
- W
- D
- L
- L
- D
Team News
© Reuters
Wolfsburg will be without Paulo Otavio, William (both ACL), Luca Waldschmidt (ankle), Maxence Lacroix (muscle), Micky van de Ven (hamstring) and Renato Steffen (knock) due to injury, though the latter two are hoping to return before the end of the month.
Kevin Mbabu replaced the injured Lacroix at half time against Dortmund and slotted into the back three, which is where the Swiss international could start on Friday alongside Sebastiaan Bornauw and John Brooks.
Top scorer Lukas Nmecha, who has netted eight league goals this term, is set to lead the line and he could be supported in attack by January additions Max Kruse and Jonas Wind.
As for Mainz, Alexander Hack (ankle), Jeremiah St Juste (shoulder), and Lee Jae-sung (knee) are all ruled out with injuries while Delano Burgzorg continues to recover from a heart condition.
In the absence of Hack and St Juste, Niklas Tauer is set to be handed another start in the back three alongside Stefan Bell and Moussa Niakhate, while Silvan Widmer and Aaron Caricol could operate as wing-backs.
Karim Onisiwo, who has scored two goals in his last three away games, is expected to start in attack with Jonathan Burkardt, who has found the net 10 times in the Bundesliga this term.
Wolfsburg possible starting lineup:
Casteels; Mbabu, Bornauw, Brooks; Baku, Schlager, Arnold, Gerhardt; Wind, Kruse; Nmecha
Mainz 05 possible starting lineup:
Zentner; Nemeth, Bell, Niakhate; Widmer, Stach, Kohr, Boetius, Caricol; Onisiwo, Burkardt
We say: Wolfsburg 1-1 Mainz 05
Wolfsburg and Mainz have been far from their best in recent weeks but both clubs will fancy their chances of returning to winning ways on Friday.
Having said that, there is little to separate these two teams at present and they may be forced to share the spoils on this occasion.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wolfsburg win with a probability of 44.3%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 31.36% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wolfsburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.59%) and 2-0 (6.93%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 1-2 (7.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.33%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Wolfsburg would win this match.
