MX23RW : Thursday, May 2 09:13:02| >> :600:8362870:8362870:
Tondela
Taca da Liga | Group Stage
Dec 23, 2023 at 6pm UK
Estadio Joao Cardoso
Sporting Lisbon

Tondela
1 - 2
Sporting Lisbon

Tavares (76')
Alves (11'), Luan (16'), Mezenga (54'), Ba (85')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Braganca (17'), Paulinho (32')
Neto (45')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Taca da Liga clash between Tondela and Sporting Lisbon, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Tondela

All competitions
Taca da Liga
Last Game: Torreense 1-1 Tondela (2-4 pen.)
Sunday, November 26 at 5pm in Taca de Portugal

Sporting Lisbon

All competitions
Taca da Liga
Last Game: Sporting Lisbon 2-0 Porto
Monday, December 18 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga

We said: Tondela 1-3 Sporting Lisbon

 Sporting are heavily fancied to get through to the semi-final of this competition and will be aware of the importance of keeping their momentum going heading into the New Year. We expect a whole-hearted effort from the hosts here but feel that they will be bowing out of the competition at the final whistle of this match. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 56.2%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Tondela had a probability of 20.82%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.86%) and 0-2 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.9%), while for a Tondela win it was 1-0 (6.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.

Result
TondelaDrawSporting Lisbon
20.82% (0.768 0.77) 22.98% (0.606 0.61) 56.2% (-1.369 -1.37)
Both teams to score 53.05% (-0.762 -0.76)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.42% (-1.602 -1.6)46.58% (1.607 1.61)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.15% (-1.521 -1.52)68.85% (1.526 1.53)
Tondela Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.45% (-0.134 -0.13)36.55% (0.14 0.14)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.66% (-0.136 -0.14)73.34% (0.142 0.14)
Sporting Lisbon Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.62% (-1.019 -1.02)16.38% (1.025 1.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
53.98% (-1.881 -1.88)46.02% (1.888 1.89)
Score Analysis
    Tondela 20.82%
    Sporting Lisbon 56.2%
    Draw 22.98%
TondelaDrawSporting Lisbon
1-0 @ 6.03% (0.377 0.38)
2-1 @ 5.49% (0.14 0.14)
2-0 @ 3.03% (0.179 0.18)
3-1 @ 1.84% (0.04 0.04)
3-2 @ 1.67% (-0.022 -0.02)
3-0 @ 1.02% (0.056 0.06)
Other @ 1.75%
Total : 20.82%
1-1 @ 10.9% (0.32 0.32)
0-0 @ 5.99% (0.396 0.4)
2-2 @ 4.96% (-0.046 -0.05)
3-3 @ 1% (-0.049 -0.05)
Other @ 0.12%
Total : 22.98%
0-1 @ 10.83% (0.36 0.36)
1-2 @ 9.86% (-0.053999999999998 -0.05)
0-2 @ 9.8% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)
1-3 @ 5.95% (-0.246 -0.25)
0-3 @ 5.91% (-0.222 -0.22)
2-3 @ 2.99% (-0.136 -0.14)
1-4 @ 2.69% (-0.211 -0.21)
0-4 @ 2.67% (-0.199 -0.2)
2-4 @ 1.35% (-0.112 -0.11)
1-5 @ 0.97% (-0.114 -0.11)
0-5 @ 0.97% (-0.109 -0.11)
Other @ 2.21%
Total : 56.2%

How you voted: Tondela vs Sporting Lisbon

Tondela
9.1%
Draw
18.2%
Sporting Lisbon
72.7%
11
Head to Head
Apr 9, 2022 8.30pm
Gameweek 29
Tondela
1-3
Sporting Lisbon
Hernando (71')
Boselli (13'), Augusto (52'), Pedro (68')
Inacio (29'), Sarabia (33', 69')
Reis (50'), Adan (52')
> Preview
Nov 28, 2021 6pm
Gameweek 12
Sporting Lisbon
2-0
Tondela
Sarabia (10'), Paulinho (50')
Sarabia (30'), Ugarte (78'), Tomas (85')

Barbosa (30'), Augusto (74'), Sagnan (80')
> Preview
Mar 13, 2021 8.30pm
Gameweek 23
Tondela
0-1
Sporting Lisbon

Khacef (40'), Olabe (52'), Alves (60')
Tomas (81')
Coates (44')
> Preview
Nov 1, 2020 8pm
Gameweek 6
Sporting Lisbon
4-0
Tondela
Goncalves (45', 49'), Porro (79'), Sporar (90+3')
Palhinha (32'), Nunes (85'), Santos (86')

Ferreira (28'), Augusto (85')
Jun 18, 2020 9.15pm
Gameweek 27
Sporting Lisbon
2-0
Tondela
Cabral (13'), Sporar (31' pen.)

Tavares (10'), Almeida (87'), Alves (89')
rhs 2.0
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