Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 67.93%. A draw had a probability of 19.1% and a win for Portimonense had a probability of 13.02%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (11.08%) and 1-2 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.06%), while for a Portimonense win it was 1-0 (4.22%). The actual scoreline of 3-5 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.
Result | ||
Portimonense | Draw | Braga |
13.02% ( -0.16) | 19.05% ( 0.08) | 67.93% ( 0.08) |
Both teams to score 49.28% ( -0.74) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
56.85% ( -0.74) | 43.15% ( 0.74) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
34.45% ( -0.73) | 65.55% ( 0.73) |
Portimonense Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
55.81% ( -0.72) | 44.2% ( 0.72) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
19.72% ( -0.59) | 80.28% ( 0.59) |
Braga Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
88.31% ( -0.19) | 11.69% ( 0.19) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
63.22% ( -0.41) | 36.78% ( 0.41) |
Score Analysis |
Portimonense | Draw | Braga |
1-0 @ 4.22% ( 0.06) 2-1 @ 3.7% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 1.72% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 1.08% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 1.01% ( -0.04) Other @ 1.3% Total : 13.02% | 1-1 @ 9.06% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 5.17% ( 0.17) 2-2 @ 3.97% ( -0.09) Other @ 0.86% Total : 19.05% | 0-2 @ 11.9% ( 0.21) 0-1 @ 11.08% ( 0.27) 1-2 @ 9.72% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 8.52% ( 0.08) 1-3 @ 6.95% ( -0.07) 0-4 @ 4.57% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 3.73% ( -0.07) 2-3 @ 2.84% ( -0.09) 0-5 @ 1.96% ( -0.01) 1-5 @ 1.6% ( -0.04) 2-4 @ 1.52% ( -0.06) Other @ 3.53% Total : 67.92% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 31 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 89 | 29 | 60 | 81 |
2 | Benfica | 31 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 71 | 25 | 46 | 76 |
3 | Porto | 31 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 57 | 26 | 31 | 63 |
4 | Braga | 31 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 62 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 18 | 6 | 7 | 46 | 32 | 14 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 32 | 34 | -2 | 46 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 45 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 36 |
9 | Casa Pia | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 35 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 31 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 42 | 44 | -2 | 34 |
11 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 33 |
12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 5 | 17 | 9 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 32 |
13 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 32 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 35 | 57 | -22 | 30 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 31 | 6 | 11 | 14 | 32 | 49 | -17 | 29 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 31 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 34 | 66 | -32 | 28 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 31 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 31 | 65 | -34 | 23 |
18 | Vizela | 31 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 30 | 63 | -33 | 22 |
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