Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estoril Praia win with a probability of 50.91%. A win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 25.81% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estoril Praia win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.99%) and 2-0 (8.01%). The likeliest Estrela Amadora win was 1-2 (6.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Estoril Praia would win this match.
Result | ||
Estoril Praia | Draw | Estrela Amadora |
50.91% ( -0.1) | 23.28% ( 0.04) | 25.81% ( 0.07) |
Both teams to score 58.23% ( -0.07) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.38% ( -0.12) | 42.62% ( 0.12) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
34.97% ( -0.12) | 65.03% ( 0.12) |
Estoril Praia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.16% ( -0.08) | 16.84% ( 0.09) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
53.17% ( -0.15) | 46.83% ( 0.15) |
Estrela Amadora Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.02% ( -0.01) | 29.98% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.91% ( -0.01) | 66.09% ( 0.02) |
Score Analysis |
Estoril Praia | Draw | Estrela Amadora |
2-1 @ 9.65% ( -0) 1-0 @ 8.99% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 8.01% ( -0) 3-1 @ 5.73% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 4.76% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 3.45% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.55% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 2.12% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.54% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 0.91% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.2% Total : 50.91% | 1-1 @ 10.83% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 5.81% ( -0) 0-0 @ 5.05% ( 0.03) 3-3 @ 1.39% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.2% Total : 23.28% | 1-2 @ 6.53% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 6.08% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 3.66% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 2.62% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.33% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.47% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.12% Total : 25.81% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 32 | 27 | 3 | 2 | 92 | 29 | 63 | 84 |
2 | Benfica | 32 | 24 | 4 | 4 | 71 | 27 | 44 | 76 |
3 | Porto | 32 | 20 | 6 | 6 | 60 | 26 | 34 | 66 |
4 | Braga | 32 | 20 | 5 | 7 | 68 | 47 | 21 | 65 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 32 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 47 | 34 | 13 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 49 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 32 | 13 | 7 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 32 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 35 | 39 | -4 | 39 |
9 | SC FarenseFarense | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 45 | 46 | -1 | 37 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 32 | 6 | 17 | 9 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 35 |
11 | Casa Pia | 32 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 35 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 33 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 32 | 9 | 6 | 17 | 48 | 55 | -7 | 33 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 32 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 36 | 58 | -22 | 31 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 32 | 6 | 12 | 14 | 32 | 49 | -17 | 30 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 32 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 34 | 69 | -35 | 28 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 32 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 31 | 68 | -37 | 23 |
R | Vizela | 32 | 4 | 10 | 18 | 30 | 64 | -34 | 22 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |