Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atlanta United win with a probability of 49.26%. A win for New England Revolution had a probability of 28.28% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atlanta United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.21%) and 2-0 (6.78%). The likeliest New England Revolution win was 1-2 (6.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.96%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atlanta United would win this match.
Result | ||
Atlanta United | Draw | New England Revolution |
49.26% ( 1.62) | 22.45% ( 0.11) | 28.28% ( -1.74) |
Both teams to score 63.43% ( -1.71) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
63.26% ( -1.71) | 36.73% ( 1.71) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
41.1% ( -1.89) | 58.9% ( 1.88) |
Atlanta United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.74% ( -0.07) | 15.25% ( 0.07) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
56.06% ( -0.13) | 43.93% ( 0.12) |
New England Revolution Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.85% ( -1.95) | 25.14% ( 1.95) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
40.14% ( -2.77) | 59.85% ( 2.77) |
Score Analysis |
Atlanta United | Draw | New England Revolution |
2-1 @ 9.36% ( 0.22) 1-0 @ 7.21% ( 0.57) 2-0 @ 6.78% ( 0.52) 3-1 @ 5.87% ( 0.12) 3-0 @ 4.25% ( 0.32) 3-2 @ 4.05% ( -0.15) 4-1 @ 2.76% ( 0.05) 4-0 @ 2% ( 0.15) 4-2 @ 1.9% ( -0.07) 5-1 @ 1.04% ( 0.02) Other @ 4.05% Total : 49.26% | 1-1 @ 9.96% ( 0.25) 2-2 @ 6.46% ( -0.22) 0-0 @ 3.84% ( 0.31) 3-3 @ 1.86% ( -0.18) Other @ 0.34% Total : 22.45% | 1-2 @ 6.87% ( -0.22) 0-1 @ 5.3% ( 0.15) 0-2 @ 3.66% ( -0.11) 1-3 @ 3.16% ( -0.29) 2-3 @ 2.97% ( -0.28) 0-3 @ 1.68% ( -0.15) 1-4 @ 1.09% ( -0.17) 2-4 @ 1.03% ( -0.16) Other @ 2.52% Total : 28.28% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 26 | 16 | 10 | 21 |
2 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 18 |
3 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 17 |
4 | Toronto | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 16 |
5 | Columbus Crew | 10 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 15 |
6 | New York City FCNY City | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 14 |
7 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 13 |
8 | DC United | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 13 |
9 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 12 |
10 | CF MontrealMontreal | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 12 |
11 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 11 |
12 | Chicago Fire | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 10 |
13 | Orlando City | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 9 |
14 | Nashville SCNashville | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 8 |
15 | New England RevolutionNew England | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4 |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 18 |
2 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 18 |
3 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 10 | 8 | 17 |
4 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 17 |
5 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 16 | 2 | 15 |
6 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 15 |
7 | Austin FCAustin | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 13 | 1 | 15 |
8 | Houston DynamoHouston | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 13 |
9 | St Louis City | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 12 |
10 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 11 |
11 | Portland TimbersPortland | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 10 |
12 | Dallas | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 8 |
13 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 6 |
14 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 14 | 25 | -11 | 4 |