Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Girona win with a probability of 44.8%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 30.35% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Girona win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.18%) and 2-0 (7.37%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 (7.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.71%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Girona would win this match.
Result | ||
Girona | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
44.8% ( 0.08) | 24.84% ( 0.44) | 30.35% ( -0.51) |
Both teams to score 56.39% ( -1.77) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
53.39% ( -2.19) | 46.61% ( 2.2) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
31.12% ( -2.09) | 68.88% ( 2.09) |
Girona Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.14% ( -0.87) | 20.86% ( 0.87) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
46.45% ( -1.38) | 53.55% ( 1.38) |
Atletico Madrid Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.26% ( -1.43) | 28.74% ( 1.44) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.42% ( -1.82) | 64.58% ( 1.82) |
Score Analysis |
Girona | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
1-0 @ 9.4% ( 0.61) 2-1 @ 9.18% ( -0) 2-0 @ 7.37% ( 0.29) 3-1 @ 4.8% ( -0.13) 3-0 @ 3.85% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 2.99% ( -0.21) 4-1 @ 1.88% ( -0.1) 4-0 @ 1.51% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.17% ( -0.12) Other @ 2.66% Total : 44.8% | 1-1 @ 11.71% ( 0.31) 0-0 @ 6% ( 0.54) 2-2 @ 5.72% ( -0.23) 3-3 @ 1.24% ( -0.14) Other @ 0.17% Total : 24.84% | 0-1 @ 7.48% ( 0.39) 1-2 @ 7.3% ( -0.1) 0-2 @ 4.66% ( 0.06) 1-3 @ 3.04% ( -0.17) 2-3 @ 2.38% ( -0.2) 0-3 @ 1.94% ( -0.05) 1-4 @ 0.95% ( -0.09) Other @ 2.62% Total : 30.35% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Real Madrid | 37 | 29 | 7 | 1 | 87 | 26 | 61 | 94 |
2 | Barcelona | 37 | 25 | 7 | 5 | 77 | 43 | 34 | 82 |
3 | GironaGirona | 37 | 24 | 6 | 7 | 78 | 46 | 32 | 78 |
4 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 37 | 23 | 4 | 10 | 68 | 43 | 25 | 73 |
5 | Athletic Bilbao | 37 | 18 | 11 | 8 | 60 | 37 | 23 | 65 |
6 | Real Sociedad | 37 | 16 | 12 | 9 | 51 | 37 | 14 | 60 |
7 | Real BetisBetis | 37 | 14 | 14 | 9 | 48 | 45 | 3 | 56 |
8 | Villarreal | 37 | 14 | 10 | 13 | 64 | 64 | 0 | 52 |
9 | Valencia | 37 | 13 | 9 | 15 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 48 |
10 | AlavesAlaves | 37 | 12 | 9 | 16 | 35 | 45 | -10 | 45 |
11 | Osasuna | 37 | 12 | 8 | 17 | 44 | 55 | -11 | 44 |
12 | Getafe | 37 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 43 |
13 | Sevilla | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 47 | 52 | -5 | 41 |
14 | Celta Vigo | 37 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 44 | 55 | -11 | 40 |
15 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 37 | 10 | 9 | 18 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 39 |
16 | Rayo Vallecano | 37 | 8 | 14 | 15 | 29 | 47 | -18 | 38 |
17 | Mallorca | 37 | 7 | 16 | 14 | 31 | 43 | -12 | 37 |
18 | CadizCadiz | 37 | 6 | 15 | 16 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 33 |
R | Granada | 37 | 4 | 9 | 24 | 38 | 72 | -34 | 21 |
R | Almeria | 37 | 2 | 12 | 23 | 37 | 74 | -37 | 18 |
> La Liga Full Table |