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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 42.2%. A win for Doncaster Rovers had a probability of 30.81% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.65%) and 2-0 (7.76%). The likeliest Doncaster Rovers win was 0-1 (9.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.79%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Carlisle United would win this match.
Result | ||
Carlisle United | Draw | Doncaster Rovers |
42.2% ( 0.05) | 26.99% ( 0.01) | 30.81% ( -0.07) |
Both teams to score 49.79% ( -0.06) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
44.74% ( -0.06) | 55.26% ( 0.06) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
23.52% ( -0.05) | 76.48% ( 0.05) |
Carlisle United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.13% ( -0) | 25.87% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
39.15% ( -0) | 60.85% ( -0) |
Doncaster Rovers Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.17% ( -0.08) | 32.83% ( 0.08) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
30.6% ( -0.09) | 69.4% ( 0.09) |
Score Analysis |
Carlisle United | Draw | Doncaster Rovers |
1-0 @ 11.48% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 8.65% ( 0) 2-0 @ 7.76% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 3.9% ( 0) 3-0 @ 3.5% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.17% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.32% 4-0 @ 1.18% ( 0) Other @ 2.25% Total : 42.2% | 1-1 @ 12.79% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 8.49% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 4.82% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.89% Total : 26.99% | 0-1 @ 9.46% ( 0) 1-2 @ 7.12% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 5.27% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.65% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.96% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.79% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.57% Total : 30.81% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Stockport CountyStockport | 46 | 27 | 11 | 8 | 96 | 48 | 48 | 92 |
P | Wrexham | 46 | 26 | 10 | 10 | 89 | 52 | 37 | 88 |
P | Mansfield TownMansfield | 46 | 24 | 14 | 8 | 90 | 47 | 43 | 86 |
4 | MK Dons | 46 | 23 | 9 | 14 | 83 | 68 | 15 | 78 |
5 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 46 | 21 | 8 | 17 | 73 | 68 | 5 | 71 |
6 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 46 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 69 | 65 | 4 | 71 |
7 | Crawley TownCrawley | 46 | 21 | 7 | 18 | 73 | 67 | 6 | 70 |
8 | BarrowBarrow | 46 | 18 | 15 | 13 | 62 | 56 | 6 | 69 |
9 | Bradford CityBradford | 46 | 19 | 12 | 15 | 61 | 59 | 2 | 69 |
10 | AFC Wimbledon | 46 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 64 | 51 | 13 | 65 |
11 | Walsall | 46 | 18 | 11 | 17 | 69 | 73 | -4 | 65 |
12 | Gillingham | 46 | 18 | 10 | 18 | 46 | 57 | -11 | 64 |
13 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 46 | 17 | 12 | 17 | 60 | 69 | -9 | 63 |
14 | Notts County | 46 | 18 | 7 | 21 | 89 | 86 | 3 | 61 |
15 | Morecambe | 46 | 17 | 10 | 19 | 67 | 81 | -14 | 58 |
16 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 46 | 17 | 6 | 23 | 67 | 70 | -3 | 57 |
17 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 46 | 16 | 9 | 21 | 63 | 71 | -8 | 57 |
18 | Newport CountyNewport | 46 | 16 | 7 | 23 | 62 | 76 | -14 | 55 |
19 | Swindon TownSwindon | 46 | 14 | 12 | 20 | 77 | 83 | -6 | 54 |
20 | Salford City | 46 | 13 | 12 | 21 | 66 | 82 | -16 | 51 |
21 | Grimsby Town | 46 | 11 | 16 | 19 | 57 | 74 | -17 | 49 |
22 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 46 | 11 | 12 | 23 | 59 | 80 | -21 | 45 |
R | Sutton UnitedSutton | 46 | 9 | 15 | 22 | 59 | 84 | -25 | 42 |
R | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 46 | 11 | 9 | 26 | 44 | 78 | -34 | 42 |
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