Euro Champ Qualifying | Semi-Finals
Mar 21, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Cardiff City Stadium
Wales4 - 1Finland
The Match
Match Report
Wales beat Finland 4-1 in Cardiff to set up a Euro 2024 playoff final versus Poland on Tuesday.
Preview
Sports Mole previews Thursday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Wales and Finland, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Wales 1-1 Turkey
Tuesday, November 21 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Tuesday, November 21 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Last Game: San Marino 1-2 Finland
Monday, November 20 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Monday, November 20 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
| Current Group H Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Slovenia | 10 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Denmark | 10 | 9 | 22 |
| 3 | Finland | 10 | 8 | 18 |
| 4 | Kazakhstan | 10 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Northern Ireland | 10 | -4 | 9 |
| 6 | San Marino | 10 | -28 | 0 |
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wales win with a probability of 38.2%. A win for Finland had a probability of 34.33% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wales win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.14%) and 2-0 (6.94%). The likeliest Finland win was 0-1 (10.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.99%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Wales would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Wales | Draw | Finland |
38.2% ( 1.19) | 27.47% ( -0.16) | 34.33% ( -1.03) |
| Both teams to score 49.28% ( 0.38) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
