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Europa League
Brighton logo
Europa League | Group Stage
Sep 21, 2023 at 8pm UK
The American Express Community Stadium
AEK Athens

Brighton
2 - 3
AEK Athens

Pedro (30' pen., 67' pen.)
Julio (47'), Estupinan (66'), De Zerbi (71'), Paul van Hecke (76'), Welbeck (90+3')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Sidibe (11'), Gacinovic (40'), Ponce (84')
Sidibe (47'), Mitoglou (66'), Szymanski (67'), Ponce (69'), Gacinovic (72'), Mantalos (90+8'), Mohammadi (90+10')

The Match

Match Report

Brighton & Hove Albion suffer a surprise 3-2 home defeat to Greek side AEK Athens in their first taste of European competition.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Brighton & Hove Albion and AEK Athens, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Brighton & Hove Albion

All competitions
Last Game: Man Utd 1-3 Brighton
Saturday, September 16 at 3pm in Premier League

AEK Athens

All competitions
Last Game: AEK Athens 1-1 Olympiacos
Sunday, September 17 at 7.30pm in Greek Superleague

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brighton & Hove Albion win with a probability of 43.68%. A win for AEK Athens had a probability of 32.9% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Brighton & Hove Albion win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.26%) and 2-0 (6.18%). The likeliest AEK Athens win was 1-2 (7.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.54%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood.

Result
Brighton & Hove AlbionDrawAEK Athens
43.68% (-0.057000000000002 -0.06) 23.42% (-0.015999999999998 -0.02) 32.9% (0.073 0.07)
Both teams to score 62.64% (0.082000000000001 0.08)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
61.06% (0.095999999999997 0.1)38.93% (-0.096000000000004 -0.1)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38.75% (0.101 0.1)61.25% (-0.099999999999994 -0.1)
Brighton & Hove Albion Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.79% (0.016000000000005 0.02)18.21% (-0.013999999999999 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.77% (0.024000000000001 0.02)49.22% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02)
AEK Athens Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.58% (0.085999999999999 0.09)23.41% (-0.085999999999999 -0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.59% (0.125 0.13)57.4% (-0.126 -0.13)
Score Analysis
    Brighton & Hove Albion 43.68%
    AEK Athens 32.9%
    Draw 23.42%
Brighton & Hove AlbionDrawAEK Athens
2-1 @ 8.98% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
1-0 @ 7.26% (-0.029 -0.03)
2-0 @ 6.18% (-0.022 -0.02)
3-1 @ 5.1% (-0.0029999999999992 -0)
3-2 @ 3.7% (0.008 0.01)
3-0 @ 3.51% (-0.011 -0.01)
4-1 @ 2.17%
4-2 @ 1.58% (0.004 0)
4-0 @ 1.5% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 3.7%
Total : 43.68%
1-1 @ 10.54% (-0.010000000000002 -0.01)
2-2 @ 6.52% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 4.26% (-0.019 -0.02)
3-3 @ 1.79% (0.008 0.01)
Other @ 0.31%
Total : 23.42%
1-2 @ 7.65% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
0-1 @ 6.19% (-0.012 -0.01)
0-2 @ 4.49% (0.0020000000000007 0)
1-3 @ 3.7% (0.013 0.01)
2-3 @ 3.16% (0.013 0.01)
0-3 @ 2.18% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
1-4 @ 1.35% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
2-4 @ 1.15% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 3.04%
Total : 32.9%

How you voted: Brighton vs AEK Athens

Brighton & Hove Albion
90.8%
Draw
5.8%
AEK Athens
3.3%
120
rhs 2.0
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