Eintracht Frankfurt are looking for their third straight win in the Bundesliga when they welcome Union Berlin to the Commerzbank Arena on Sunday afternoon.
The hosts have turned results around recently after a poor start to the campaign, whilst the visitors head into this one on the back of their success in the Berlin derby last weekend.
Match preview
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Six wins and just two defeats across their last 10 matches in all competitions have lifted the misery at Frankfurt heading into matchday 13 in the Bundesliga this weekend.
The run has followed an initial eight-game winless spell at the beginning of Oliver Glasner's tenure after his arrival in the summer, although six of those encounters did finish as draws.
The struggles of turning those draws into wins came down to a lack of goals for the large part, but after finding a solution to that problem, which is proved by Die Adler's record of scoring two in each of their last four fixtures, a climb back towards the European places has been in progress in recent weeks.
The back-to-back victories away to bottom-of-the-table Greuther Furth and high-flying Freiburg have seen Sunday's hosts climb to 11th in the table at the time of writing, with just five points separating themselves from their opponents in fifth place.
Jesper Lindstrom and the influential Filip Kostic netted the first-half goals at Freiburg last weekend, to provide Glasner's men with a shock win over the early-season surprise package on their own patch.
However, despite Goncalo Paciencia netting a stoppage-time equaliser at the Commerzbank Arena in midweek to maintain Frankfurt's unbeaten run in the Europa League this season, they prepare for Sunday's home encounter with a poor record in front of their own supporters in the Bundesliga, with no wins from their opening five league outings there.
Glasner and his players will be hoping to correct that disappointment against a Union side that they demolished 5-2 in this fixture in the 2020-21 season back in March.
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Meanwhile, Union returned to winning ways in the Bundesliga last weekend against their city rivals Hertha Berlin, with a comfortable 2-0 victory being recorded at the An der Alten Foresterei.
Taiwo Awoniyi and Christopher Trimmel netted inside the opening 30 minutes for Urs Fischer's men, and were it not for some missed opportunities, Union would have extended their lead further in a comfortable derby win.
As a result, yet another impressive start to the campaign sees Die Eisernen fighting it out for the European places once more, after securing Europa Conference League football via a seventh-placed finish last season.
With Frankfurt sure to be one of their direct competitors for one of those European spots, a positive result on Sunday would certainly be considered a success, with a win potentially lifting them into the Champions League places.
The stuttering form of the likes of Wolfsburg, RB Leipzig and Borussia Monchengladbach in the opening weeks could potentially open up an unlikely spot in the top four, but Fischer will be keen to maintain the consistent and down-to-earth standards he has instilled in his successful three-and-a-half years in charge to date.
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Team News
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The hosts could welcome back central defender Martin Hinteregger on Sunday, and were the Austrian to be available, he would replace the 37-year-old Makoto Hasebe at the heart of the three-man back line.
Midfielder Christopher Lenz is the only other injury problem, with the German remaining on the sidelines due to a thigh injury picked up in September.
Paciencia's late equaliser in the week arrived on his return from a recent injury absence, but Rafael Santos Borre is expected to lead the line from the start once again.
As for the visitors, Max Kruse made a welcome return from a one-month absence in the two successive victories over the past week, and he will continue to partner Awoniyi up front, with the latter netting eight Bundesliga goals so far this campaign.
Trimmel will return in his right wing-back role after missing the 1-0 win over Maccabi Haifa in the week due to his European suspension, with Julian Ryerson dropping out in his place, although he did pick up a slight knock during the victory anyway.
Kevin Behrens continues his absence on the sidelines though, with COVID-19 protocols keeping the forward option out of the squad.
Eintracht Frankfurt possible starting lineup:
Trapp; Tuta, Hinteregger, N'Dicka; Chandler, Jakic, Sow, Kostic; Lindstrom, Kamada; Borre
Union Berlin possible starting lineup:
Luthe; Friedrich, Knoche, Baumgart; Trimmel, Haraguchi, Khedira, Promel, Giesselmann; Kruse, Awoniyi
We say: Eintracht Frankfurt 2-1 Union Berlin
We are predicting Frankfurt to pick up their first Bundesliga home win of the campaign on Sunday, as a result of their recent upturn in form, as well as the struggles Union regularly face on their travels compared to at home.
Both sides tend to score and concede in their fixtures, so goals are to be expected in an entertaining encounter at the Commerzbank Arena.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Eintracht Frankfurt win with a probability of 50.88%. A win for Union Berlin had a probability of 25.08% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Eintracht Frankfurt win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.64%) and 2-0 (8.63%). The likeliest Union Berlin win was 0-1 (6.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.37%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Eintracht Frankfurt in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Eintracht Frankfurt.
