Copa Libertadores | Round of 16 | 1st Leg
Jun 29, 2022 at 1.30am UK
Arena da Baixada
We said: Athletico Paranaense 2-1 Club Libertad
Having met in the group stages, Athletico Paranaense and Club Libertad are familiar foes in this year's Copa Libertadores and this makes for a thrilling watch. We are backing the hosts to make use of their home advantage and see off the Paraguayans, who have struggled to find their feet on the road so far.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletico Paranaense win with a probability of 52.96%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Club Libertad had a probability of 21.57%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletico Paranaense win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.45%) and 2-1 (9.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.98%), while for a Club Libertad win it was 0-1 (7.68%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Athletico Paranaense in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Athletico Paranaense.
| Result |
| Athletico Paranaense | Draw | Club Libertad |
52.96% ( -0.6) | 25.46% ( 0.16) | 21.57% ( 0.44) |
| Both teams to score 46.69% ( 0.13) |
