Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wellington Phoenix win with a probability of 43.45%. A win for Brisbane Roar had a probability of 33.84% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.32%) and 2-0 (5.64%). The likeliest Brisbane Roar win was 1-2 (7.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Wellington Phoenix would win this match.
Result | ||
Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Brisbane Roar |
43.45% ( 0.25) | 22.71% ( 0.11) | 33.84% ( -0.36) |
Both teams to score 65.67% ( -0.53) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
64.89% ( -0.65) | 35.11% ( 0.65) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
42.89% ( -0.72) | 57.11% ( 0.73) |
Wellington Phoenix Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.23% ( -0.16) | 16.77% ( 0.16) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
53.29% ( -0.29) | 46.71% ( 0.29) |
Brisbane Roar Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.9% ( -0.49) | 21.1% ( 0.49) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
46.07% ( -0.76) | 53.93% ( 0.76) |
Score Analysis |
Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Brisbane Roar |
2-1 @ 8.78% ( 0.06) 1-0 @ 6.32% ( 0.17) 2-0 @ 5.64% ( 0.12) 3-1 @ 5.23% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 4.07% ( -0.05) 3-0 @ 3.36% ( 0.06) 4-1 @ 2.33% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.82% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 1.5% ( 0.02) 4-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.03) Other @ 3.48% Total : 43.45% | 1-1 @ 9.83% ( 0.12) 2-2 @ 6.83% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 3.54% ( 0.12) 3-3 @ 2.11% ( -0.06) Other @ 0.41% Total : 22.71% | 1-2 @ 7.65% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 5.5% ( 0.1) 0-2 @ 4.28% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 3.97% ( -0.07) 2-3 @ 3.54% ( -0.08) 0-3 @ 2.22% ( -0.03) 1-4 @ 1.54% ( -0.05) 2-4 @ 1.38% ( -0.05) Other @ 3.76% Total : 33.84% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 27 | 15 | 8 | 4 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 53 |
2 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 26 | 16 | 4 | 6 | 47 | 27 | 20 | 52 |
3 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 27 | 10 | 12 | 5 | 43 | 33 | 10 | 42 |
4 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 27 | 12 | 5 | 10 | 52 | 41 | 11 | 41 |
5 | Macarthur | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 41 |
6 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 50 | 38 | 12 | 39 |
7 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 27 | 11 | 4 | 12 | 44 | 48 | -4 | 37 |
8 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 52 | 51 | 1 | 32 |
9 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 30 |
10 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 28 |
11 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 27 | 7 | 5 | 15 | 36 | 55 | -19 | 26 |
12 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 27 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 46 | 69 | -23 | 22 |
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