Wolfsburg's faint hopes of European qualification could be all but over when they face hosts Union Berlin in the Bundesliga at Stadion An der Alten Forsterei on Sunday.
Union come into the clash having beaten Freiburg 2-1 on March 30 and are in 13th place with 30 points, while the Wolves are in ninth place and have 38 points following their 1-0 loss against Heidenheim on March 29.
Match preview
© Imago
Despite accumulating just 28% possession against Freiburg, the hosts were still able to produce three big chances, but their opponents were unfortunate to have not scored given they generated nearly 1.5 xG and two big chances.
Union have played first-placed Bayern Munich, third-placed Eintracht Frankfurt and seventh-placed Freiburg in their last three, but they only conceded one goal in each of those matches while scoring five times.
Die Eisernen were defeated 1-0 by Wolfsburg in the reverse fixture on November 23, a game in which they failed to create a single big chance and mustered just one shot in the entire first half.
Head coach Steffen Baumgart's side are unbeaten in three matches – winning two – but they did lose 13 of their prior 17 in all competitions.
However, Union are winless in their last four home matches having lost two and drawn two in that period, and they also suffered three losses and were held to two stalemates in five of their previous six at Stadion An der Alten Forsterei.
© Imago
Meanwhile, though the Wolves managed to generate a similar xG figure to their opponents (1.31), most of their expected goals tally was produced from the 88th minute onwards (0.79).
The visitors have struggled in the final third in the past weeks, with the club failing to score in four of their last eight.
Boss Ralph Hasenhuttl's side are four points behind sixth-placed RB Leipzig, who are in the Conference League qualification spot.
Wolfsburg have failed to win in their last three, losing 1-0 in their past two, and they were beaten in two, held to draws in four and emerged victorious in just two of their prior eight.
Hasenhuttl's team come into Sunday's match with a mixed record on the road, succumbing to defeat in three of their eight most recent away fixtures while winning on three occasions.
Team News
© Imago
Union will be without midfielder Aljoscha Kemlein for the rest of the season, so expect Janik Haberer and Rani Khedira to be stationed in the middle of the pitch.
With defenders Kevin Vogt, Oluwaseun Ogbemudia and Robert Skov ruled out, Danilho Doekhi, Leopold Querfeld and Diogo Leite could appear in a back three.
Striker Andrej Ilic may be supported by Tim Skarke and Bendict Hollerbach considering Woo-Yeong Jeong is not likely to return from a ligament injury until June.
As for Wolfsburg, they face the prospect of taking on Union without several key players, including defenders Denis Vavro, Mads Roerslev, Sebastiaan Bornauw and Konstantinos Koulierakis.
Goalkeeper Niklas Klinger is also unavailable, but regular Kamil Grabara is ready to start, and he may be protected by a back four featuring Mads Maehle, Kilian Fischer, David Odogu and Yannick Gerhardt.
Midfielder Mattias Svanberg will not be in the matchday squad, and his absence could lead to starts for Bence Dardai, Maximilian Arnold and Patrick Wimmer.
Perhaps Andreas Skov Olsen, Jonas Wind and Mohamed El Amine Amoura will feature in a front three considering striker Bartosz Bialek will be sidelined along with attacker Lovro Majer.
Union Berlin possible starting lineup:
Ronnow; Doekhi, Querfeld, Leite; Trimmel, Haberer, Khedira, Juranovic; Skarke, Hollerbach; Ilic
Wolfsburg possible starting lineup:
Grabara; Maehle, Fischer, Odogu, Gerhardt; Dardai, Arnold, Wimmer; Olsen, Wind, Amoura
We say: Union Berlin 2-1 Wolfsburg
Union will take confidence from their impressive performances against the division's best in the past weeks.
Wolfsburg have also been inconsistent away from home, and the hosts' resilience should make them favourites on Sunday.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Lewis Nolan
