Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 52%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Roma had a probability of 23.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.6%) and 2-0 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.68%), while for a Roma win it was 0-1 (7.11%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Napoli would win this match.
Result | ||
Napoli | Draw | Roma |
52% ( -0.12) | 24.56% ( 0.09) | 23.43% ( 0.02) |
Both teams to score 51.52% ( -0.26) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
49.7% ( -0.36) | 50.3% ( 0.36) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
27.75% ( -0.32) | 72.25% ( 0.32) |
Napoli Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.68% ( -0.18) | 19.32% ( 0.19) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
48.92% ( -0.3) | 51.08% ( 0.31) |
Roma Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
63.86% ( -0.17) | 36.14% ( 0.18) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
27.08% ( -0.18) | 72.92% ( 0.18) |
Score Analysis |
Napoli | Draw | Roma |
1-0 @ 11.47% ( 0.1) 2-1 @ 9.6% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 9.44% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 5.26% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 5.17% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 2.68% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 2.16% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 2.13% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.1% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.98% Total : 52% | 1-1 @ 11.68% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 6.98% ( 0.1) 2-2 @ 4.89% ( -0.03) 3-3 @ 0.91% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.1% Total : 24.56% | 0-1 @ 7.11% ( 0.07) 1-2 @ 5.95% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 3.62% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 2.02% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.66% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 1.23% Other @ 1.86% Total : 23.43% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Inter Milan | 38 | 29 | 7 | 2 | 89 | 22 | 67 | 94 |
2 | AC Milan | 38 | 22 | 9 | 7 | 76 | 49 | 27 | 75 |
3 | Juventus | 38 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 54 | 31 | 23 | 71 |
4 | Atalanta BCAtalanta | 37 | 21 | 6 | 10 | 70 | 39 | 31 | 69 |
5 | Bologna | 38 | 18 | 14 | 6 | 54 | 32 | 22 | 68 |
6 | Roma | 38 | 18 | 9 | 11 | 65 | 46 | 19 | 63 |
7 | Lazio | 38 | 18 | 7 | 13 | 49 | 39 | 10 | 61 |
8 | Fiorentina | 37 | 16 | 9 | 12 | 58 | 44 | 14 | 57 |
9 | Napoli | 38 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 55 | 48 | 7 | 53 |
10 | Torino | 38 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 36 | 36 | 0 | 53 |
11 | Genoa | 38 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 45 | 45 | 0 | 49 |
12 | Monza | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 39 | 51 | -12 | 45 |
13 | Hellas VeronaHellas Verona | 38 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 38 | 51 | -13 | 38 |
14 | Lecce | 38 | 8 | 14 | 16 | 32 | 54 | -22 | 38 |
15 | Udinese | 38 | 6 | 19 | 13 | 37 | 53 | -16 | 37 |
16 | Empoli | 38 | 9 | 9 | 20 | 29 | 54 | -25 | 36 |
17 | CagliariCagliari | 38 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 42 | 68 | -26 | 36 |
18 | FrosinoneFrosinone | 38 | 8 | 11 | 19 | 44 | 69 | -25 | 35 |
R | SassuoloSassuolo | 38 | 7 | 9 | 22 | 43 | 75 | -32 | 30 |
R | Salernitana | 38 | 2 | 11 | 25 | 32 | 81 | -49 | 17 |
> Serie A Full Table |