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New York Red Bulls
Major League Soccer | Gameweek 27
Sep 23, 2021 at 1am UK
Red Bull Arena
New York City

NY Red Bulls
1 - 1
NY City

Klimala (90+12' pen., 90+12' pen.)
Davis (45'), Reyes (61'), Klimala (80'), Duncan (82'), Clark (84')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Castellanos (31')
Callens (21'), Tinnerholm (44'), Chanot (84')

Preview: New York Red Bulls vs. New York City FC - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Major League Soccer clash between New York Red Bulls and New York City FC, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

It is the New York derby this weekend as Ronny Deila's New York City FC face Gerhard Struber's New York Red Bulls at the Red Bull Arena on Sunday in the MLS Eastern Conference.

New York City have the edge going into this fixture, claiming nine more points than their state rivals, but derby matches do not tend to follow form, with passion coming to the forefront on derby days.


Match preview

New York Red Bulls teammates celebrates after the game against the Orlando City SC on May 29, 2021© Reuters

Red Bulls picked up a much-needed victory in their last game, having gone seven games without a win prior to Thursday's clash with Columbus Crew.

It was a tight affair against Caleb Porter's side, with both teams creating chances on goal, but John Tolkin's first-half strike was enough to seal the three points for New York Red Bulls.

Having come through the Red Bulls academy, 19-year-old Tolkin will record this game as one of the most special, as he netted his first goal for the senior side and performed well playing in a central midfield role considering he is a left-back by trade.

That win has given Struber's squad a big lift heading into the derby this weekend, with victory against their rivals potentially taking the red side of New York to within two points of the playoff places with one game in hand on Montreal and DC United.

New York City head coach Ronny Deila shouts to his team during the first half against Toronto FC at BMO Field on August 8, 2021© Reuters

New York City are firmly on track to achieve a playoff spot for the sixth year in a row, having picked up 31 points from their 19 fixtures to date.

However, Deila's side could not add to their points tally last time out on Thursday when they faced fellow top-seven side Philadelphia Union, despite dominating possession at Subaru Park.

The Bronx Blues could not turn their ball domination into chances, and although they limited their hosts to few chances also, Alejandro Bedoya was clinical and scored his only shot of the game.

That defeat was New York City's first in the league since July 18, but they reacted well after that loss to Columbus Crew with three wins on the bounce, including scoring 10 goals in those three games which followed, and they will be hoping to do the same in their upcoming fixtures.

Overall, Red Bulls have the edge over New York City in the previous meetings, but in more recent times the Blues have managed to win this derby, most notably the last meeting in November when Deila's side ran out 5-2 winners.

The New York rivalry tends to bring a home victory, with the last time either of these teams won on their rival's patch coming back in 2017 when New York City won 2-0 at the Red Bull Arena.

New York Red Bulls Major League Soccer form:
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • W

New York City FC Major League Soccer form:
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • D
  • W
  • L

New York City FC form (all competitions):
  • W
  • D
  • D
  • D
  • W
  • L



Team News

New York Red Bulls manager Gerhard Struber after the game on May 29, 2021© Reuters

Midfielder Youba Diarra is closing in on a return to action after suffering a hamstring injury in May, but Sunday's derby is expected to have come too early for the 23-year-old to feature.

Youngster Cameron Harper will also be absent for New York Red Bulls with a hip injury, and he could return to the field of play early next month.

A longer-term injury is what faces centre-back Aaron Long, who suffered an Achilles tendon injury at the end of May, and that has ruled him out for the rest of the season.

Two absentees for New York City include Heber and Gedion Zelalem, who both have not featured for the Blues this season, but Keaton Parks has recently made his return after suspension.

Parks picked up two yellow cards against Chicago, and when he came back from suspension against Inter Miami he received another yellow, so Deila did not start the midfielder in their last outing, but he is expected to return to the starting lineup on Sunday.

Valentin Castellanos, Ismael Tajouri and Jesus Medina have been New York City's biggest source of goals this season, registering 22 goals between them, and they are all expected to start on Sunday.

New York Red Bulls possible starting lineup:
Miguel; Tarek, Nealis, Reyes; Gutman, Tolkin, Davis, Duncan; Carmona; Klimala, Fabio

New York City FC possible starting lineup:
Johnson; Amundsen, Callens, Chanot, Tinnerholm; Morales, Park; Thiago, Medina, Tajouri; Castellanos


SM words green background

We say: New York Red Bulls 1-1 New York City FC

New York City have the league position in their favour over their city rivals, but their hosts will have been lifted by their victory last time out, and they will be looking to build on that with another point on Sunday.

Deila's side may feel they are comfortable in the playoff positions and Red Bulls have seventh spot in their sights, but Struber's side will face a difficult challenge against the Blues, who will want to avoid defeat on Sunday.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 39.29%. A win for New York Red Bulls had a probability of 34.21% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.45%) and 0-2 (6.85%). The likeliest New York Red Bulls win was 1-0 (9.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: NY Red Bulls vs NY City

New York Red Bulls
20.9%
Draw
18.6%
New York City FC
60.5%
43
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New York City FC forward Valentin Castellanos (11) celebrates a goal by forward Santiago Rodriguez (not pictured) against Toronto FC with defender Malte Amundsen (12) and forward Thiago (8) during the first half at BMO Field on August 7, 2021
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Eastern Conference

TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Inter MiamiInter Miami1383235201527
2FC CincinnatiCincinnati127321510524
3New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls125522018220
4Toronto126151617-119
5DC United124531919017
6New York City FCNY City125251414017
7Charlotte FCCharlotte FC125251313017
8Columbus Crew113621311215
9Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia113532119214
10Atlanta UnitedAtlanta113351614212
11Orlando City113351420-612
12CF MontrealMontreal113351523-812
13Nashville SCNashville112541419-511
14Chicago Fire122461222-1010
15New England RevolutionNew England11218922-137

Western Conference

TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Real Salt LakeSalt Lake126422011922
2Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd106221711620
3Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy125522319420
4Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver115331813518
5Los Angeles FCLos Angeles125342219318
6Colorado RapidsColorado125342018218
7Houston DynamoHouston115241111017
8St Louis City113711815316
9Austin FCAustin124441515016
10Seattle SoundersSeattle123451514113
11Sporting Kansas CityKansas122551921-211
12Dallas113261216-411
13Portland TimbersPortland122462125-410
14San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes123182028-810


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