Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Maritimo win with a probability of 40.85%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 31.71% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Maritimo win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.42%) and 2-0 (7.58%). The likeliest Arouca win was 0-1 (9.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.96%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.
Result | ||
Maritimo | Draw | Arouca |
40.85% | 27.44% | 31.71% |
Both teams to score 48.78% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
43.29% | 56.71% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
22.34% | 77.66% |
Maritimo Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.74% | 27.26% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
37.3% | 62.69% |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.06% | 32.94% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
30.48% | 69.52% |
Score Analysis |
Maritimo | Draw | Arouca |
1-0 @ 11.67% 2-1 @ 8.42% 2-0 @ 7.58% 3-1 @ 3.65% 3-0 @ 3.29% 3-2 @ 2.03% 4-1 @ 1.19% 4-0 @ 1.07% Other @ 1.96% Total : 40.85% | 1-1 @ 12.96% 0-0 @ 8.98% 2-2 @ 4.68% Other @ 0.82% Total : 27.44% | 0-1 @ 9.97% 1-2 @ 7.2% 0-2 @ 5.54% 1-3 @ 2.66% 0-3 @ 2.05% 2-3 @ 1.73% Other @ 2.56% Total : 31.71% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 96 | 29 | 67 | 90 |
2 | Benfica | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 77 | 28 | 49 | 80 |
3 | Porto | 34 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 63 | 27 | 36 | 72 |
4 | Braga | 34 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 71 | 50 | 21 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 52 | 38 | 14 | 63 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 55 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 54 | 50 | 4 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 42 |
9 | Casa Pia | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 38 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 37 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 6 | 19 | 9 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 37 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 42 | 52 | -10 | 36 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 33 |
14 | Estrela Amadora | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 33 | 53 | -20 | 33 |
15 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 32 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 39 | 72 | -33 | 32 |
R | Vizela | 34 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 36 | 66 | -30 | 26 |
R | ChavesChaves | 34 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 31 | 72 | -41 | 23 |
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