Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 79.85%. A draw had a probability of 13.3% and a win for Belenenses had a probability of 6.89%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-2 with a probability of 12.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (11.26%) and 0-1 (9.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.3%), while for a Belenenses win it was 1-0 (2.35%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
Result | ||
Belenenses | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
6.89% | 13.26% | 79.85% |
Both teams to score 45.48% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
65.06% | 34.94% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
43.07% | 56.93% |
Belenenses Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
48.83% | 51.17% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
14.54% | 85.46% |
Sporting Lisbon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
93.15% | 6.85% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
74.78% | 25.22% |
Score Analysis |
Belenenses | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
1-0 @ 2.35% 2-1 @ 2.11% Other @ 2.43% Total : 6.89% | 1-1 @ 6.3% 0-0 @ 3.51% 2-2 @ 2.83% Other @ 0.63% Total : 13.26% | 0-2 @ 12.6% 0-3 @ 11.26% 0-1 @ 9.4% 1-2 @ 8.44% 0-4 @ 7.55% 1-3 @ 7.55% 1-4 @ 5.06% 0-5 @ 4.05% 1-5 @ 2.71% 2-3 @ 2.53% 0-6 @ 1.81% 2-4 @ 1.69% 1-6 @ 1.21% 2-5 @ 0.91% Other @ 3.07% Total : 79.84% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 96 | 29 | 67 | 90 |
2 | Benfica | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 77 | 28 | 49 | 80 |
3 | Porto | 34 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 63 | 27 | 36 | 72 |
4 | Braga | 34 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 71 | 50 | 21 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 52 | 38 | 14 | 63 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 55 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 54 | 50 | 4 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 42 |
9 | Casa Pia | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 38 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 37 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 6 | 19 | 9 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 37 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 42 | 52 | -10 | 36 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 33 |
14 | Estrela Amadora | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 33 | 53 | -20 | 33 |
15 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 32 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 39 | 72 | -33 | 32 |
R | Vizela | 34 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 36 | 66 | -30 | 26 |
R | ChavesChaves | 34 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 31 | 72 | -41 | 23 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |