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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 52.06%. A win for Go Ahead Eagles had a probability of 24.53% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.64%) and 0-2 (8.52%). The likeliest Go Ahead Eagles win was 2-1 (6.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
Result | ||
Go Ahead Eagles | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
24.53% ( -0.19) | 23.41% ( -0.61) | 52.06% ( 0.8) |
Both teams to score 56.43% ( 1.81) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.61% ( 2.49) | 44.39% ( -2.48) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.24% ( 2.37) | 66.76% ( -2.36) |
Go Ahead Eagles Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.05% ( 1.19) | 31.95% ( -1.18) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.59% ( 1.33) | 68.41% ( -1.32) |
AZ Alkmaar Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.93% ( 1.23) | 17.07% ( -1.23) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
52.76% ( 2.14) | 47.24% ( -2.13) |
Score Analysis |
Go Ahead Eagles | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
2-1 @ 6.28% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 6.22% ( -0.48) 2-0 @ 3.55% ( -0.15) 3-1 @ 2.39% ( 0.07) 3-2 @ 2.11% ( 0.15) 3-0 @ 1.35% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.64% Total : 24.53% | 1-1 @ 11% ( -0.37) 2-2 @ 5.55% ( 0.21) 0-0 @ 5.45% ( -0.61) 3-3 @ 1.24% ( 0.13) Other @ 0.17% Total : 23.41% | 1-2 @ 9.73% ( 0.07) 0-1 @ 9.64% ( -0.65) 0-2 @ 8.52% ( -0.22) 1-3 @ 5.73% ( 0.26) 0-3 @ 5.02% ( 0.07) 2-3 @ 3.27% ( 0.25) 1-4 @ 2.53% ( 0.21) 0-4 @ 2.22% ( 0.12) 2-4 @ 1.45% ( 0.16) Other @ 3.95% Total : 52.06% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | PSV EindhovenPSV | 34 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 111 | 21 | 90 | 91 |
2 | Feyenoord | 34 | 26 | 6 | 2 | 92 | 26 | 66 | 84 |
3 | FC Twente | 34 | 21 | 6 | 7 | 69 | 36 | 33 | 69 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 34 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 70 | 39 | 31 | 65 |
5 | Ajax | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 74 | 61 | 13 | 56 |
6 | NECNijmegen | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 68 | 51 | 17 | 53 |
7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 49 | 47 | 2 | 50 |
8 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 34 | 14 | 7 | 13 | 51 | 48 | 3 | 49 |
9 | Go Ahead Eagles | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 47 | 46 | 1 | 46 |
10 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 37 | 56 | -19 | 38 |
11 | Heerenveen | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 53 | 70 | -17 | 37 |
12 | PEC Zwolle | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 45 | 67 | -22 | 36 |
13 | Almere CityAlmere City | 34 | 7 | 13 | 14 | 33 | 59 | -26 | 34 |
14 | Heracles | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 41 | 74 | -33 | 33 |
15 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 38 | 56 | -18 | 29 |
16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 34 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 50 | 73 | -23 | 29 |
R | FC VolendamVolendam | 34 | 4 | 7 | 23 | 34 | 88 | -54 | 19 |
R | Vitesse | 34 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 30 | 74 | -44 | 6 |
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